赴中國大陸投資與台灣出口、失業率關聯性之研究

A Study of the Relationships among Taiwan’s Firms Investing in Mainland China, Taiwan’s Export, and Unemployment Rate

黃郁文(Yu-Wen Huang)

指導教授 ： 謝德宗

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2010.10734

摘要

自2002 年迄今，中國大陸持續位居台灣對外投資金額首位，持續為台灣第一大出口市場和最大貿易出超來源，顯見台灣產業對中國大陸市場的高度依賴。隨著台商對中國大陸投資持續成長，台灣對中國大陸(含香港)出口比重持續上升，然而對美、歐、日的出口比重卻持續下滑，兩者消長現象愈趨明顯，是否對台灣整體出口造成影響？另，赴中國大陸投資是否亦為台灣失業率居高不下的主因？均為值得探究的議題。因此，本文以台灣赴中國大陸投資額、出口總值與失業率等3項變數進行實證研究，利用單根檢定、VAR等計量方法建立實證模型，並進一步採用Granger因果分析、衝擊反應函數及變異數分解等方法，深入探討3者的相互關係。

實證結果獲得的重要結論如下：
1.赴中國大陸投資具持續效果，顯然已成一股無可避免的趨勢，而其受出口成長率的正向影響大於失業率的正向影響，顯示整體出口成長率增加，經濟景氣改善，赴中國大陸投資額亦會增加；而因經濟不景氣、失業率高的情況下才赴中國大陸投資的成份較少。
2.赴中國大陸投資對於整體出口成長率較具直接相關性，對於失業率較不具相關。惟赴中國大陸投資將使整體出口成長率增加的說法，未獲本研究證實。
3.赴中國大陸投資與失業率之間不存在必然的直接關係，欲降低失業率，主要不在於限制赴中國大陸投資金額多寡，而在於強化國內出口成長動能，並使國內出口不因赴中國大陸投資而被取代。

關鍵字

赴中國大陸投資 ； 出口 ； 失業率 ； 向量自我迴歸模型 ； Granger因果檢定 ； 衝擊反應 ； 變異數分解

並列摘要

Since 2002 till now, mainland China has consistently been the first priority place that Taiwan’s firms invest annually the most amount in than in other countries. Mainland China has also been the largest export market of Taiwan and the main source of Taiwan’s trade revenue. This indicates Taiwan’s industries highly rely on China market. When Taiwan’s investment in China increases, the proportion of Taiwan’s exports to China (including H.K.) to the world is rising, while the proportion to US, Europe and Japan is declining. The increasing and decreasing situation is gradually obvious. Would Taiwan’s investment in China have impact on Taiwan’s whole export? Besides, would Taiwan’s large investment in China be the main cause of the high unemployment rate? Both issues are worth exploring the answers. Therefore, this article is focusing on 3 variables as follows to conduct the empirical analysis, including Taiwan’s investment in China, Taiwan’s whole export value, and Taiwan’s unemployment rate. With unit root test, VAR model, Granger causality analysis, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods, we can research the multiple relationships of these 3 variables.

The empirical analysis obtains results as follows:
1.Taiwan’s investment flowing into China has a continuing effect, apparently it has become a inevitable tendency. It has been positively influenced by the export growth rate more than by the unemployment rate. When the whole export growth rate increases, the economy improves, the amount of Taiwan’s investment in China will also increase. It is less because of the economic recession with high unemployment rate, then Taiwan’s investment flows into China.
2.Taiwan’s investment in China has more direct relevance with Taiwan’s whole export growth rate, than with the rate of unemployment. However, the statement that Taiwan’s investment flowing into China will increase Taiwan’s whole export growth rate is not proved by this research.
3.Taiwan’s large investment in China does not have the consequential relationship with Taiwan’s unemployment rate. If we want to reduce the rate of unemployment, the effective measures is not to limit the investment amount flowing into China, but to strengthen the momentum of Taiwan’s export growth, and make the domestic export not be replaced by the investment in China.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan’s investment in China ； export ； unemployment rate ； VAR ； Granger causality analysis ； impulse response function ； variance decomposition

參考文獻

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