本研究選定北勢溪上游集水區做為研究區域,應用BASINS(Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Nonpoint Sources)整合性集水區管理系統,對模擬區域進行次集水區劃分,分別輸入HSPF(Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran)模式及SWMM(Storm Water Management Model)模式進行水文與水質模擬,並根據臺北翡翠水庫管理局之水文實測資料與臺北水源特定管理局之水質實測資料,進行參數之率定(Calibration)與驗證(Verification),模擬結果顯示, HSPF模式模擬之平均流量為12.11 cms,最大流量為348.87 cms ,懸浮固體物之平均濃度為8.1 mg/L,最高濃度為382.0 mg/L,總磷之平均濃度為0.026 mg/L,最高濃度為0.155 mg/L;SWMM模式模擬之平均流量為12.39 cms,最大流量為269.75 cms,懸浮固體物之平均濃度為17.2 mg/L,最高濃度為124.2 mg/L,總磷之平均濃度為0.025 mg/L,最高濃度為0.120 mg/L,兩模式之模擬趨勢大致相同,且相關係數r(Correlation Coefficient)、決定係數R2(Correlation of Determination)、模式有效性係數NSE(Nash Sutcliffe efficiency)及平均百分比誤差MPE(Mean percentange Error)等判定指標皆符合接受值,故推估模擬成果具一定可靠性,最後針對兩模式於逕流、入滲及懸浮固體物及總磷傳輸行為等主要控制方程式之參數進行敏感度分析,討論兩模式輸入參數、敏感參數及模擬結果之差異。
The present research delineated subwatershed in the PeiShih creek watershed by BASINS(Better Assessment Science Integrating point and Nonpoint Sources), and then employed watershed models HSPF(Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran)and SWMM(Storm Water Management Model)to proceed hydrology and water quality simulations. The hydrology and water quality parameters were calibrated and verified with the hydrological data observed by the Taipei Feitsui Reservoir Administration, and the water quality data observed by the Taipei Water Management Office. The results showed that the average flow is 12.11 cms, the maximum flow is 348.87 cms, the average suspended solid is 8.1 mg/L, the maximum suspended solid is 382.0 mg/L, the average total phosphorous is 0.026 mg/L, the maximum total phosphorous is 0.155 mg/L for HSPF, and the average flow is 12.39 cms, the maximum flow is 269.75 cms, the average suspended solid is 17.2 mg/L, the maximum suspended solid is 124.2 mg/L, the average total phosphorous is 0.025 mg/L, the maximum total phosphorous is 0.120 mg/L for SWMM. HSPF and SWMM have similar simulation results, and then correlation coefficient(r), coefficient of determination(R2), nash sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) and mean percentange error(MPE)were within acceptable ranges. It also showed that the simulation results were reliable. Finally, sensitivity analysis of the major parameters belonging to the runoff, infiltration, sediment and total phosphorous transport control equations were discussed.