外國直接投資越南決定因素之探討-河內與胡志明市之比較

自1986年頒布「革新開放」(doi moi)政策，大量的外商進入越南進行直接投資及開發，特別是一些地區和城市，例如河內及胡志明市等都可以明顯觀察到外商發展的現象。本文主要探討1995-2012年內外商直接投資越南的決定因素，並且針對2000-2012年間兩個在越南最大的城市河內及胡志明市的外國直接投資的相關資料進行假設和回歸模型，以確定每個因素對外商直接投資越南的意義。其中，兩個虛擬變量也考慮包括2007年越南加入世界貿易組織（WTO）以及2001年簽訂的越美雙邊貿易協定。一般來說，越南及其城市(河內與胡志明市)的外國直接投資流入量的水準會受國內生產總和(GDP)、GDP成長率、越美雙邊貿易及世界貿易的開放而影響。分析結果也顯示，影響外商直接投資越南及其城市河內及胡志明市的決定因素略有差異，假說中基礎設備的發展對外商直接投資越南是唯一顯著的，但此一假說對於河內及胡志明市並無顯著影響；人力資源的假說會影響越南及河內的外商直接投資並不被支持，其對於胡志明市則呈現不顯著的反效果。

關鍵字

外商直接投資（FDI ；越南；回歸模型

並列摘要

Since the introduction of renovation (doi moi) policy in 1986, large amounts of foreign direct investment (FDI) have flowed and developed into Vietnam, especially into several regions and cities in Vietnam. This paper explores several factors that determine FDI inflows in Vietnam in 1995-2012 and two Vietnam’s biggest city which are Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City (HCM City) in 2000-2012. The hypotheses and linear regression models are proposed to identify the significance of each characteristic on the FDI inflows into Vietnam, Hanoi, and HCM City. Two dummy variables are also taken into account including Vietnam’s World Trade Organization (WTO) entry and Vietnam-US’s bilateral trade. In general, levels of FDI inflows in Vietnam and its cities depend on gross domestic product (GDP) per cap, GDP growth, Vietnam-US’s bilateral trade, as well as openness to the world trade. There is a slightly difference of attractive factors of FDI inflows into Vietnam and its cities. The hypotheses of infrastructure development are only significance in the case of Vietnam, but not significance in the cases of Hanoi and HCM City. The hypotheses of human capital are not supported for the cases of Vietnam and Hanoi, and show negative result but insignificant for the case of HCM City.

並列關鍵字

Foreign direct investment (FDI) ； Vietnam ； linear regression model

參考文獻

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外國直接投資越南決定因素之探討-河內與胡志明市之比較

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