全球高速鐵路之發展,至今已有多年歷史,它除了成為世界各國都市間運輸動脈,也成為中長程旅客喜好搭乘之交通工具。隨著市場競爭與顧客多元之需求,在許多產業中,常發現雖然僅提供一項產品,但為了吸引不同需求之消費者,而訂出不同價格,例如,就高速鐵路公司之營收管理而言,其針對不同品質要求的顧客,販賣不同層級車廂之車票(不同層級車廂之車票的價格不同),來增加營運收入。 然而,在乘客購買車票的過程中,其對某一層級車廂之車票,心中已存在主觀價值,所謂主觀價值是指每位消費者心中,對每一項特定產品願意支付的最高價格( Bitran and Mondschein,1997 )。因此,倘若車票之售價低於主觀價值,消費者即願意購買,但如果顧客偏好的車廂座位已售完,鐵路公司即無法再出售該車廂之車票,此時,乘客必須轉買另一層級車廂之車票,此情況稱為需求替代,在此需求替代的情形下,若另一層級車廂也沒有座位,意即高速鐵路公司發生缺貨,此時,便產生營收上的損失。基於上述,本研究主要探討高速鐵路公司在缺貨情況發生之前提下,加入主觀價值與需求替代之概念,建構出最佳的銷售模式。 根據上述,本研究以總期望利潤最大為目標,探討鐵路公司於需求替代與缺貨情況下的銷售策略。利用Maple 8與 Matlab 7.4為工具,並以基因演算法求得鐵路公司各旅程之近似最佳的銷售量及期望利潤間的差異狀況,最後,以數值範例與敏感度分析驗證模式的合理性。
Railway transportation system has been developed for years. In revenue management, due to the global competitive environment and the diversified customer demands, railway companies have set different prices to attract different classes of passengers in order to increase revenue. The passengers can choose different ticket price and comfort level (or class) that satisfies their needs. Passengers will buy the tickets if their reservation prices are higher than or equal to the tickets’ price. Reservation price is the maximum price that customers are willing to pay for the product (Bitran and Mondschein, 1997). A rail company cannot sell a certain ticket class if there are no more seats in the class. In this situation, passengers may switch to the other class. This status is called demand substitution. However, if there is no seat for all classes, under demand substitution, it will be out of stock and will result in revenue loss. This study develops a model to optimize rail company revenue by determining reservation price and demand substitution under shortage. Finally, a genetic algorithm is used to derive the total expected quantity of sale and total expected revenue. Maple 8 and Matlab 7.4 software are used to implement the symbolic and the numerical analysis. A numerical example and sensitivity analysis are provided to illustrate the theory.