取消「軍教免稅」對福利及經濟影響之研究 -可計算一般均衡分析模型的應用

The Economic Effects of Cancelling the Income Tax Exemption for Military Personnel and Teachers – A Computable General Equilibrium analysis

陳美芳(Mei-Fang Chen)

指導教授 ： 蘇漢邦

中原大學/商學院/國際貿易研究所/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200700540

摘要

早在民國3年，所得稅法中即明文規定「軍人在從軍中所得之俸給」與「教育的薪給」免徵所得稅，是為我國「軍教免稅」政策的開始。在此特殊的歷史背景下，「軍教免稅」的政策實施至今，歷經許多的討論，支持者認為軍教人員對國家之貢獻較為特殊，免稅是一種補償及鼓勵的做法。然反對者卻認為站在賦稅公平的角度來看，繳稅是為國民應盡義務之一，且說軍教人員之貢獻超過農、工、商，亦無法讓人完全信服。在支持與反對聲浪交鋒的過程中一直無法取得一有效且可行的共識；延宕至今，經過長時間的討論、沉澱以及大環境的蛻變。
在民國94年行行政院再度通過「所得稅法」修正草案，明定取消軍人、國中小學以下教職員薪資所得免納所得稅規定。此一修法的實施，將可增加國庫約150餘億的稅收，而面對此類所得稅法的修正，勢必也將造成我國的經濟因所得分配的變化而帶來衝擊。
有鑑於此，本研究以可計算一般均衡分析模型，延伸納入所得收支方程式，設計各種不同的所得與社會福利量化分析指標（包含所得分配GINI係數、消費者效用EV與CV），建構出符合我國經濟現況之租稅政策計量分析模型。分析取消「軍教免稅」制度，在經濟效率面與所得公平面所引發之衝擊，以探究政府租稅改革政策對我國整體經濟與社會福利之影響，並做為政策擬定之參考。
經由理論與模型的設計，本文針對取消「軍教免稅」制度之研究可得到四項經濟面向的意涵：(1)家計部門與所得分配：取消免稅對中、高所得階層負面影響最大，但可藉機取消「倒置補貼」的現象；由福利角度來看，長、短期下可使中、低所得階層福利效用增加，而總社會福利將因政策的施行而有所提升，GINI係數（所得不均度）變動率短期下降0.49364%、長期下降0.49353%，所得分配獲得正面的改善；(2)總體經濟指標：透過經濟體系的連動，可刺激短期進(M)出(X)口量，但出口淨額(X-M)在長期有衰退的現象；對物價的牽動，長、短期皆可使總合物價降低，相對地我國實質GDP也因此短期提高0.00230%，而長期也提高0.00004%。(3)政府稅收：除了關稅及投資間接稅稅收呈負面衰退，其就整體稅收及間接稅稅收長、短期皆呈大幅成長，故知取消「軍教免稅」可增加財政收入；(4)其他經濟指標：取消「軍教免稅」對短期平均薪資水準是負面的影響，但對長期而言確有成長0.000402%的現象；消費者物價指數（C.P.I.）長、短期皆呈現下降；在資本支出方面，與實質投資相互輝映，實質投資在短期內較無受影響，故資本支出也無明顯變化，但在長期，實質投資及資本支出皆呈現衰退的趨勢；複合原始投入短期增加0.002171%，長期卻下降0.000090%。
綜合以上，本研究以可計算一般均衡分析模型為基礎，建立適當的所得福利指標，連結經濟與福利的分析。經由模擬結果得知，取消「軍教免稅」政策對於所得福利之影響效果大於經濟影響效果，並且可以擴大稅基，增加政府整體稅收，以達稅制的公平與效率。

關鍵字

所得分配 ； 一般均衡分析模型 ； 租稅改革 ； 所得稅法 ； 軍教免稅

並列摘要

Early in 1914, the law of income tax proclaimed in writing that “the government salary of military personnel” and “emolument of teachers” were exempt, where was the beginning of our country “income tax exemption for military personnel and teachers”. With such particular historic background, the policy of “income tax exemption for military personnel and teachers” have gone through many discussions, the views of supporter were that the contribution of military and teachers were kind of sacrifice, so the exemption were kind of compensation and encouragement. In the opposite, however, some think that it should be treated on the basis of taxes justice, and paying taxes was one of a national’s responsibilities, and did not think that the contribution of military and teachers exceed the contribution of agriculture, industry and commercial. All the way, there cannot find a good and effective common consensus between the supporters and opposition, so this policy has been put off till now.
In 2005, the Executive Yuan goes through the revised draft of “the income tax” to cancel the exemption for military personnel and teachers of under junior high school. It estimates approximately that will increase 1.5 billion tax revenue by carrying out this law, but it will also impact for economic and welfare.
For this reason, this research use CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model, brings into the income revenue and expenditure equations, and designs different welfare indices to build a financial and tax analysis model to reflect the real economic situation of our country, and to analysis the effects and impact of cancelling “the income tax exemption for military personnel and teachers”, and also taken as reference for policy makers in regulation and setting economic development plans.
According to theory and design of model, we can get the four economic meanings about cancelling the income tax exemption for military personnel and teachers in this text.
(1) Household consumption sector and income distribution: The most influential is cancelling the exemption to median and high income stratum, but it can cancel the “Upside-down subsidy” situation. From the point view of welfare, it can improve the low income stratum and the social welfare utility in the long and short term, and the GINI coefficient decrease 0.49364% in the short term, decrease 0.49353% in the long term, so we can get the result that the policy can helps to re-allocate the property.
(2) Macroeconomic Index: Through the economic system linking, the policy can stimulate export and import amounts, but the net import amounts become decline. The aggregate price level decrease in the long and short term, the real GDP increase in opposition.
(3) Government taxes: The policy can make the aggregate tax and indirect tax grain growth, but the tariff and indirect tax of investment are decline, so we know cancelling the income tax exemption for military personnel and teachers can increase the government taxes.
(4)Other economic index: It brings a negative influence in average salary in the short term to cancelling the income tax exemption for military personnel and teachers, but decrease 0.000402% in the long term, and the consumer price index decline in the long and short term. About the aggregate payments to capital is the same with aggregate real investment expenditure, aggregate real investment expenditure and aggregate payments to capital have no influence in the short term, but both are decline in the long term. The complex primitive input is increase 0.002171% in the short term, but decrease 0.000090% in the long term.
It is concluded that this thesis use the Computable General Equilibrium model establish the suitable income welfare index to analysis the economic and welfare situation. Finally, the simulation shows the income welfare is more effect than the economic, and the policy can expanding the tax base, increase government tax, and improve the fairness and efficiency.

並列關鍵字

income distribution ； income tax law ； the income tax exemption for military personnel and tea ； CGE ； Computable General Equilibrium ； tax reform

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