兩岸總體經濟對金價變動影響之研究

A Study on the Influence of Cross-Strait Macroeconomics toward Gold Price Fluctuation

陳昱光(Yu-Kuang Chen)

指導教授 ： 何瓊芳

中原大學/商學院/國際貿易研究所/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201000540

摘要

一般民眾常利用原油價格、美元匯率及GDP值來預測黃金商品是漲是跌，但是這些變數是否真的會影響黃金價格的漲跌，是值得探討的。因此本研究擬分析這些變數的漲幅情形對於黃金價格的影響是否存在，同時探討黃金價格與這些變數之因果關係。並且以其他因素去探討其影響程度。

在研究方法上，本文採用迴歸分析方法來探討黃金價格與這些變數之間是否存在線性之關係。本文以黃金價格、黃金產出量、原油價格、美元兌新台幣匯率、中國名目平均每人GDP及台灣名目平均每人GDP作為研究對象，研究期間為2002至2008年，且利用其他因素探討其差異性。實證結果也指出：無論是最近一年、三年及五年只要這些變數對黃金價格有顯著影響，代表著黃金價格與這些變數有非常大的因果關係。因此研究冀望以實證結果所獲得之資訊能有利於何時購入黃金之分析。

在本文同時也探討黃金價格與其他因素間之關係。實證結果顯示在短期黃金價格會受到台灣名目平均每人GDP所影響，在中期，黃金價格則會受到產出量及美元兌新台幣匯率所影響，而長期來說，黃金價格卻受到原油價格及中國名目平均每人GDP影響，最後總體看來，黃金價格則會受到原油價格、美元兌新台幣匯率及中國名目平均每人GDP所影響，經由本次實證，可提供不同期間投資人作為參考的數據。

關鍵字

黃金價格 ； 美元匯率

並列摘要

Ordinary people use the price of crude oil, doller exchange rate and GDP to predict the fluctuation of gold commodity. Whether those variables truly affect the fluctuation of gold price is an issue to explore. This research analyze whether the fluctuation of those variables affect the price of gold and to explore the causality of the relationship between gold price and those variables. In addition, adding other factors to explore the extent of
their effect.

In terms of research method, this research uses regression analysis to explore the linear relationship between gold price and those variables. The research objects are gold price, gold production, crude oil price, exchange rate between US doller and NT doller, the nominal GDP per person in China, the nominal GDP per person in Taiwan. The research period is between 2002 and 2008 and using other factors to see their difference. The empirical results indicate that no matter whether it is one year, three years, and five years, as long as those variables have significant effect on gold price, they represent very large causal relationships. As a result, this research expects to use the empirical findings to use in purchasing analysis of gold.

Meanwhile, this paper explores the relationship between gold price and other factors. Empirical results show that in the short term gold price is affected by the nominal GDP per person in Taiwan. In the midterm, gold price is affected by the production and exchange rate between US doller and NT doller. In the long term, gold price is affected by crude oil price and the nominal GDP per person in China. Overall, gold price can be affected by crude oil price, exchange rate between US doller and NT doller, and the nominal GDP per person in China. Investors can use the results as a reference in investment in different periods from this empirical research.

並列關鍵字

doller exchange rate ； gold price

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