國際油價波動對我國經濟與所得分配之影響–LES與AIDS需求理論之比較

The Impacts of International Energy Prices on Economics and Income Distribution in Taiwan- The Comparison between LES and AIDS Demand Theory

陳光豪(Guang-Hao Chen)

指導教授 ： 蘇漢邦

中原大學/商學院/國際貿易研究所/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200901290

摘要

近年來國際原油價格不斷攀升，2008年更已多次突破每桶一百美元之大關，又我國因所處地理環境因素，自產之石油非常有限，台灣能源98%皆仰賴進口，其中石油部分進口依存度更高達99.9% 以上。因此能源價格對於我國無論是農業、工商製造業、服務業，抑或最終消費者皆具有關鍵性之影響，其影響層面更廣至我國總體經濟、環境、家計單位所得分配、以及產業結構等。此外全球各式能源價格，如煤、天然氣等皆有逐漸上漲之趨勢。

過去文獻利用可計算一般均衡分析探討之主題眾多，如銷售稅制之改革、油品市場自由化、能源安全、能源稅以及探討價格衝擊傳遞效果等。而線性支出系統與近似理想需求體系亦廣泛應用於探討旅遊業、製造業等層面，然而卻鮮少應用於探討能源價格對於經濟、環境、所得分配。是故本論文以此為主軸，利用美國能源資訊處之原油、煤礦、天然氣2009年至2030年之預測資料將線性支出系統與近似理想需求體系導入於一般均衡分析中，期望探討能源價格衝擊對於我國總體經濟、環境、所得分配與產業結構之影響，並且加以分析線性支出系統與近似理想需求體系於模型之模擬結果中所造成之差異。

實證結果指出能源價格衝擊對於我國總體經濟有負面之效果，以及對於各產業皆有傷害，有害我國經濟之發展，而所得分配方面則惡化我國存在之所得分配扭曲之現況，並且略微改善二氧化碳之排放，有助於環境之保護。而在線性支出系統與近似理想需求體系模擬結果比較方面，實證數據顯示以近似理想需求體系所獲得之模擬結果較線性支出體系所獲得之模擬結果低，意即近似理想需求體系之模擬結果受波動幅度較大。

關鍵字

近似理想需求體系 ； CGE模型 ； 線性支出系統

並列摘要

Recent years, the price of international crude oil keeps increasing, furthermore, since 2008, it overtook the bottleneck of one hundred dollars per barrow more than one time. Besides, because of Taiwanese environmental factors, crude oil which refined in Taiwan is extremely limited, crude oil imports exceed 98 percent of Taiwanese oil demand. We have no doubt that Taiwanese highly depends on international crude oil trading. So that energy prices have critical impacts on Taiwanese agriculture, manufacturing industry, service industry as well as final consumers, and these prices affect macroeconomic aspects, environmental aspects, income distribution as well as industry structure, extensively.

Former literatures which used computable general equilibrium analysis to research on the revolution of sales taxes, oil market liberalization, energy taxes and price shock effects, etc. In addition Linear Expenditure System and Almost Ideal Demand System apply to tourist and manufacturing industries researches. However, these theorems dose not popular in finding the relationships between energy prices and macroeconomic aspects, environmental aspects, income distribution as well as industrial structure. In doing so, in this research, we use 2009-2030 crude oil prices, coal prices, nature gas prices forecasts of American energy information to discuss the impacts of international of energy prices on economics and income distribution in Taiwan, Furthermore, the comparison of Linear Expenditure System and Almost Ideal Demand System.

In our findings, empirical results indicate that international energy prices have negative impacts on Taiwanese macroeconomic environment, industrial structure, as well income distribution, and reduce the carbon dioxide emission. Finally, in the comparison of two demand theorems, our findings suggest that Almost Ideal Demand System jeopardize the empirical estimates more than Linear Expenditure System.

並列關鍵字

Almost Ideal Demand System ； CGE model ； Linear Expenditure System

參考文獻

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