臺灣地區住宅用戶之電力需求函數研究

Estimating the Electricity Demand Model for Taiwan's Residential Sector

郭騰隆(Teng-Lung Kuo)

指導教授 ： 錢玉蘭

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2011年)

摘要

台灣在1970年代的經濟快速發展下，產業和人口開始迅速成長，生活各方面皆大幅度的改善，同時也造成用電量開始向上攀升。用電量攀升促使台電公司需增建電廠以因應此情形，但近年來因發電成本、土地不易取得、政府政策及民眾抗爭等因素，使得台電在擴廠上遭遇許多問題。為降低尖峰用電量及供電成本，台電於1979年實施負載管理措施，負載管理為需求面管理之一環，為電業利用有效引導措施和運作方式，和用戶共同提升用電效率、改變用電行為，以平衡尖離峰用電量，至目前雖有部份成效顯現，但仍可發現住宅部門用電量仍持續攀升。回顧國內外文獻，可知各國用電量攀升多與所得、電價及氣溫等變數有關，模型使用資料大多為時間序列資料及橫斷面資料，甚少使用追蹤資料，其原因為後續追蹤較為困難，但追蹤資料之優點為可理解相同觀察值在不同時間點下的行為變化，其資料所蘊含的資訊亦較橫斷面資料以及時間序列資料來的豐富。在此本研究利用台灣各縣市住宅部門歷年逐月用電追蹤資料並搭配電價、所得、降雨量、CDD、HDD及電器數量等變數來建構台灣住宅部門電力模型。研究對象由家戶和人均用電兩方面來著手，所搭配理論為固定效果模型及隨機效果模型，兩模型除各自考慮群族及時間效果外，亦同時考慮兩效果。在同時考慮群組和時間效果之估計結果中，電價彈性為正且統計顯著；所得彈性亦為正，但統計不顯著；CDD和HDD係數為正且統計顯著，在溫度高於22℃和低於10℃時會使用電量增加；降雨量僅在時間效果為統計顯著。固定效果和隨機效果模型之比較則藉由Hausman檢定加以決定，由檢定結果顯示固定效果模型優於隨機效果模型，而在固定效果模型中又以同時考慮群組和時間效果之模型較佳。

關鍵字

住宅電力需求函數 ； 追蹤資料 ； 固定效果模型 ； 隨機效果模型

並列摘要

With the growing of economy, industry and commerce have well developed and people's lifestyles have completely changed in Taiwan since 1970. At the same time, the electricity consumption also grows rapidly and Taipower starts to establish new power plant to solve this situation. But in recent years, Taipower encounters some problems due to the generating cost, land, government policy and people's protest. For descending the electricity consumption and cost, Taipower began a new policy of demand side management in 1979. The management can raise the efficiency of electricity and make people to change their behavior by using some rules. But now we still can see the raising of electricity consumption in Taiwan's residential sector. After reviewing some studies, it is hard to find that using the panel data to establish the electricity demand model. The advantage of panel data is easy to know the people’s behavior in different time, but the disadvantage is hard to collect the data of the same observations. In these studies, we also can find the correlation between electricity and some variables, such as income, price, CDD and HDD. Based on these research, this study uses the panel data of monthly electricity consumption about the 23 counties in Taiwan and some variables, such as real household income, real personal income, price, CDD, HDD and rain, to establish the electricity demand model of Taiwan's residential sector. The methods we use to estimate are fixed effect model and random effect model, and in these models we will consider the group effect and time effect. After estimating, the income elasticity is 0.003 and the price elasticity is positive and statistically significant. Besides we also find that CDD and HDD have positive sign and statistically significant. The rain has the negative sign. Finally, we can use Hausman test to determine the better model between fixed effect model and random effect model. According to the Hausman test, it is easy to find the fixed effect model is better than random effect model and in the fixed effect model we will considers the group effect and time effect at the same time.

並列關鍵字

Panel data ； Fixed effect model ； Random effect model

參考文獻

1. Pardo, Angel Pardo, Vicente Meneu, Enric Valor, 2002. “Temperature and Seasonality Influences on Spanish Electricity Load,” Energy Economics. 24:55-70.

2. Ziramba, Emmanuel Ziramba, 2008. “The Demand for Residential Electricity in South Africa,” Energy Policy. 36:3460-3466.

3. Hondroyiannis, George Hondroyiannis, 2004. “Estimating Residential Demand for Electricity in Greece,” Energy Economics. 26:319-334.

4. Bernard, Jean-Thomas Bernard, Denis Bolduc, Nadege-Desiree Yameogo, 2011. “A Pseudo-panel Data Model of Household Electricity Demand,” Resource and Energy Economics. 33:315-325.

5. Filippini, Massimo Filippini, Shonali Pachauri, 2004. “Elasticities of Electricity Demand in Urban Indian Households,” Energy Policy. 32:429-436.