經濟成長與各項因素之間存在何種關係,是許多學者及政府部門關心的議題,本研究旨在分析國內外投資及消費對於經濟成長的影響。我國國內生產毛額 (GDP)中,民間消費與投資比重近八成。本文聚焦於消費與投資並進一步區分國內及國外二部分,分析國人消費、外人消費、國人投資及外人投資等變數對經濟成長率之影響。本文採用時間序列的向量自我迴歸模型 (VAR),以單根檢定、因果關係檢定、向量自我迴歸模型所推導之衝擊反應函數及預測誤差變異數分解分析時間序列資料。經 Granger 因果關係檢定,國人投資變動率顯著影響經濟成長率,因此國人投資可視為經濟成長之先行指標;VAR 模型發現,國人消費變動率及國人投資變動率會影響經濟成長率;且經分析得知,本研究之四項變數對經濟成長率具有一定的解釋能力。
The relationship between economic growth and other factors is the concern of many academics and government departments. This study aims to analyze foreign and domestic investment and consumption to economic growth impact. The proportion of private consumption and investment nearly eight percent in our gross domestic product (GDP). This article focuses on the consumption and investment, and further distinguishes between domestic and foreign two parts. We analyze the effect of domestic consumption, foreign consumption, domestic investment and foreign investment on economic growth. A time series analysis of vector autoregression model is used as empirical method, containing single test, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition etc. By Granger causality test, there is a significant impact on change of domestic investment to the economic growth, therefore domestic investment can be regarded as a leading indicator to the economy growth; VAR model found there are significant impacts on change of domestic investment and domestic consumption to the economic growth; and our analysis find that four variables of this study on the economic growth has some explanatory power.