IPCC AR4指出隨著氣候變遷趨勢的明確化,將使極端氣候發生機率上升,而脆弱度(vulnerability)為近年災害管理研究中常被使用的分析方法之一,國內亦有諸多研究成果,其概念透過災害暴露、敏感性以及調適能力三個元素的組合,整體評估標的因災害衝擊的受害可能。我國相關氣候變遷脆弱度研究較著重於都市空間之探討,缺少以鄉村地區(rural area)為研究對象,因此現今有必要針對鄉村地區受外在擾動影響與災後系統受害程度個別探討。本研究欲透過系統方法-感受性系統模型(Sensitivity Model)建立一系統模式,藉以加強分析指標間之動態影響與系統回饋過程,並模擬未來鄉村系統在氣候變遷情境下之變動。 透過感受性系統之情境設定,進行系統內主要影響變數之調適模擬,並觀察整體鄉村系統變化,藉以作為未來氣候變遷調適之參考。模擬結果顯示,「教育程度」、「社會組織/制度」與「政府補助量」、「資訊通路」分別為生產面與生活面鄉村課題系統之主要影響變數,且兩變數應有較高之提升才得對受氣候變遷影響之鄉村系統有明確之改善。
With the assurance of the trend of climate change in IPCC AR4, the probability of extreme weather events will be getting higher. Recently, the concept of vulnerability with three components including exposure to hazards, sensitivity of system, and capacity to adapt, has been applied frequently in the research of disasters management to explore the potential damage of an entity. However, most of the researches of vulnerability for climate change focus on urban area for the high density of population and economic development, though the rural area is important in the food production function. This study will focus on the affections and damage of disasters in rural area with a systematic approach, Sensitivity Model. The tool contains the characteristics explaining variables and exploring vulnerability indicators of rural area through expert questionnaires, and it functions to analyze the dynamic correlation of indicators and to establish a system model to simulate the future situation of rural area under climate change. Finally, different scenarios with controlling variables are designed to observe the changes of system and to be used as the reference of climate change adaptation. According to the results of simulation, the study find that those variables “education”, “social organizations/system” and “government subsidies”, ” information thoroughfare” are the most important factors for the “food production scenarios” and “living environment scenarios”, and they should be higher empowered to enhance and improve the rural area system.