金融機構對中小企業授信評估因素與逾期風險之相關性實證研究─以TC銀行中部地區分行為例

An Empirical Research of Bank''s Credit and Loan Business for Small and Medium Enterprises in Taiwan：A Case Study of TC Bank

王律文(Liu-Wen Wang)

指導教授 ： 王言 ； 賴本隊

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/保險金融管理系/碩士(2009年)

摘要

中小企業的發展過程可說是臺灣經驗的縮影，在臺灣經濟發展上，扮演極重要的角色。在產業發展過程中，對於資金的取得，常因財務結構不建全而遭遇困難。政府對於協助中小企業紮根，順利取得資金融通，更是不遺餘力。銀行在配合政府政策予以中小企業融資的同時，常因中小企業財務報表透明度不夠，而在徵信時誤判，導致逾期放款的產生，造成銀行呆帳損失。而銀行授信乃應本著安全性、流動性、公益性、收益性及成長性等原則辦理，才能達到輔助中小企業發展，並創造銀行收益。
本研究希望透過非財報因素，找出可能造成逾期放款的顯著因素，建立一套預警模式，提供授信人員參考。本研究以個案銀行92年1月至97年2月已核准貸放之中小企業授信戶為研究對象，隨機抽取正常戶200件及逾期戶69件，參考銀行內部稽核中小企業貸款逾期因素、表外可能因素及聯合徵信中心資料，應用統計方法中之Logistic迴歸模式分析，探討影響逾期放款之重要因素。實證結果顯示銀行債務往來家數、是否為新往來戶、負責人是否使用信用卡循環、淨值是否高於資本額四項變數對逾期與否具顯著水準，整體判別正確率達84.8%，並以Press Q驗證本研究之區別分析是有效的。

關鍵字

授信 ； 預警模式 ； Logistic 迴歸模式 ； 中小企業貸款逾期因素

並列摘要

The development process of small and medium enterprises can be an epitome of Taiwan experience, and they play an extremely important role on the economic development of Taiwan. In the course of industrial development, enterprises often meet difficulties on the obtainment of funds owing to the unwholesome financial structure, and the government spares no efforts to assist small and medium enterprises to take root and acquire the fund accommodation smoothly. At the same time of cooperating with the government’s policy to offer small and medium enterprises financing, the banks frequently misjudge when doing the credit rating because of insufficient transparency of financial statement, resulting in the occurrence of overdue loans, and a bank’s bad debt. The bank should base on the principles of safety, fluidity, public welfare, revenue, and growth to mange the loan granting so as to achieve the goals of assisting the development of small and medium enterprises and creating the bank’s revenue simultaneously.
The research hoped to find out the striking factors that are possible to cause overdue loans through the non-financial statement factors, and established a set of warning mode to provide reference for accreditors. The research took the small and medium enterprises that had been approved for a loan by the case bank from January 2003 to February 2008 as the research subjects, drew 200 normal enterprises and 69 overdue enterprises at random, referred to small and medium enterprises’ default factors on the loan under the bank’s internal audit, the possible factors outside of the financial statement, and the data of JCIC, and applied Logistic regression analysis to explore the significant factors that affected the overdue loans. The empirical results show that the four variables: the number of banks that an enterprise has liabilities with, whether the enterprise is a new applicant, whether the person-in-charge uses the circulation interest of credit card, and whether the net value is higher than the capital have a remarkable effect on whether there will be overdue loans. The accuracy of the overall differentiation achieved 84.8%, and via Press Q, the research’s discriminant analysis was tested and verified to be valid.

並列關鍵字

Warning system ； Logistic regression odel ； small and medium enterprises’ default factors on ； credit and loan

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