本文以2001年台北縣縣長選舉爲研究識題,應用「沉默螺旋理論」探討先民對於臺灣前途以及候先人偏好的意見分佈情形,並進一步瞭解參考圑體與第三人效果感知兩個因素在驗證沈默螺旋理論時的可能影響程度。 研究結果發現此次選舉民的民意形成過程的確契合「沉默螺旋理論」的基本假設:當個人意見與預估未來意見一致者,其表達意願會比個人意見與預估未來意見不一致者來的高。當先民支持的候選人與心中認定會當選的候選人是同一個時,認為他人比自己更容易受媒體影響的選民,表達決願較高。選民個人支持的候選人與親友支持一致時,其在公開場面合表達已願較高;在控制個人意見與預估未來意見一致程度下,個人意見與親友意見一致程度並不影響表達意願。此外,政治立場傾向台灣獨立的選民的公開表達意願比主張維持現狀的選民來的強烈,但贊成統一的受訪者的公開表達意願則與上述兩者沒有顯著差異。
This study applied “Spiral of Silence Theory” to examining voters’ willingness to express opinions about candidates and Taiwan’s future, one of most controversial issues in Taiwan, during the Taipei County Magistrate’s Election in 2001. The findings supported the hypothesis of “Spiral of Silence Theory”. Voters were more willing to express opinions publicly about Taiwan’s future when their perception of the distribution of public opinion were the same as their own. Taking “third-person effect” as the mediating factor, one who believed others would be more influenced by mass media than him/herself was more likely to express his/her own opinion when individual opinion was consistent with perceived public opinion.