Technology Forecasting Via Published Patent Applications and Patent Grants

Dar-Zen Chen ； Chang-Pin Lin ； Mu-Hsuan Huang ； Yi-Tung Chan

《Journal of Marine Science and Technology》 20卷4期 (2012/08) Pp. 345-356

https://doi.org/10.6119/JMST-011-0111-1

並列摘要

The objective of this research is to study and establish the relationships between published patent applications and patent grants for exploring the technology development trend on a specific technology since more and more patents have their applications published before they are granted. Two modeling algorithms based on the patent grant/publish ratio as well as one long-term modeling algorithm based on the average publish-to-grant lag, were developed accordingly. The relationships between patent grants and published patent applications were constructed through two case studies on Magnetic Random Access Memory and Organic Light-Emitting Diode technologies and corresponding forecasts were then conducted. Comparing to the traditional time-series Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average method, the predicting power of the modeling algorithms based on the patent grant/publish ratio was satisfactory. On the other hand, the modeling algorithm based on the characteristic of average publish-to-grant lag has shown superior predicting power. Results from these two applications help us to validate the proposed methods and appropriate tools for forecasting the patent grants.

並列關鍵字

technology forecasting ； published patent application ； patent grants

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