以分量迴歸討論台灣實質匯率對產業實質工資的影響

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Real Wages - Quantile Regression Approach

沈淑芬(Shu-fen Shen) ； 徐耀南(Yao-nan Hsu)

《智慧科技與應用統計學報》 19卷1期 (2021/08) Pp. 20-35

摘要

本文利用分量迴歸分法探討台灣製造業、營建業、批發零售業、倉儲與運輸業，金融及保險業、不動產業六大產業，並考量產業本身勞動生產力和總體失業率的因素下，有關實質有效匯率變動對產業實質薪資的影響。資料期間涵蓋1981年1月到2021年3月。文中得到：在六大產業和所有分量中，實質匯率對產業實質工資的影響，除了金融及保險業和不動產業在高分量時不具顯著影響外，其餘均有顯著的影響。另外，實質匯率變動對其實質工資的影響，隨分量的變動，也會因為產業不同而有差別。最後，在六大產業中，在所有分量中，實質有效匯率對實質工資的影響程度最大的是營建業，而影響程度最穩定的是製造業，至於變動程度最大的金融及保險業。

關鍵字

實質有效匯率 ； 實質薪資 ； 分量迴歸

並列摘要

In this article we use the quantile regression to explore the impact of the real effective exchange rate on the real wages among 6 industries of Taiwan, including manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail, warehousing and transportation, finance and insurance, and real estate. We also consider the effect of labor productivity and unemployment rate. The data period covers January 1981 to March 2021. In the study we obtained: Among the 6 industries, the effect of the real exchange rate on the real wages of the industry are all significant, except for the financial and insurance industry and the real estate industry which have no significant effect on the high quantile region. In addition, the impact of changes in the real exchange rate on their real wages will vary with the change in quantiles among different industries. Finally, among the 6 industries, the real effective exchange rate has the greatest impact on the real wages of the construction industry, and the most stable impact on the manufacturing industry, and the greatest variation on the finance and insurance industry.

並列關鍵字

Real Exchange Rate ； Real Wages ； Quantile Regression