西進中國或是南向東協：臺灣青年求職與創業跨國遷移的意願與決定性因素研究

當前國內高等教育擴張與勞動市場供需不均衡的內部因素，加上經濟全球化變遷與中國對臺的人才吸納，臺灣青年人才淨流出現象正衝擊我國經濟發展的根基。爰此，本文試圖探究臺灣青年選擇出國就業與創業的流動圖像、遷移意願與最終決定出國的關鍵因素；同時也比較分析臺灣青年決定前往中國與東協國家就業與創業的選擇因素與決定性差異。本文以新古典經濟移民理論為基礎，透過經濟理性選擇與國家政治影響雙軌研究途徑，採取質性深度訪談與量化實證研究進行交叉分析。首先，透過實證模型解析2015年以前臺灣青年人才流動經驗與態度；並隨著蔡英文政府上任後，以深度訪談調查具備代表性的中國與東南亞青年臺商與臺幹，針對近年發生的美中貿易戰和新冠肺炎疫情全球擴散，試圖歸納臺灣青年海外流動的真正動機與影響。本文研究發現：臺灣青年在出國就業的動機上，坊間報導的低薪因素非青年海外遷移主要原因，真正出國工作的決定性因素是海外市場商機與職涯發展的未來性。對出國投資創業的臺灣青年而言，不論是在中國或者是東協國家，成本因素仍是重要考量；但隨著科技與網際網路發展，臺灣青年前往東南亞國家與中國創業類型，轉變為高專業、低資本的知識型服務產業和電子商務創業為主。在國家政治影響層面上，不論是中共的惠臺政策，或是蔡英文政府的新南向政策，對於臺灣青年前往中國及東協工作創業的意願皆沒有顯著影響；然而，美中貿易戰則有利於在東協的青年臺商。此外，新冠肺炎疫情則對在中國工作創業的青年臺商、臺幹影響有限，但對於在東協投資的臺灣青年而言，因為疫情嚴峻，選擇暫時撤離東協國家，返回臺灣的人數有增加趨勢，但多數希望疫情緩和後，再度前往東協國家投資。政策建議上，本文認為應建立臺灣人才追蹤庫、政府人才政策系統性整合與提升臺灣數位基礎建設及強化知識型服務業人才培訓。

關鍵字

人才外流；國際遷移；就業動機；創業動機；經濟全球化

並列摘要

The current domestic expansion of higher education and the imbalance of supply and demand in the labor market are internal factors, coupled with changes in economic globalization and brain drain to China, the net outflow of young talents from Taiwan is impacting the foundation of economic development in Taiwan. This paper attempts to explore the population flow and the key factors of the young people choosing to go abroad for employment and entrepreneurship, their willingness to migrate. This paper also compares and analyzes the differing factors of the young people choosing between China and ASEAN countries for employment and entrepreneurship. The results of this paper is established from the neoclassical economics theory in migration and applying the dual-track research approach of economic rational choice and national politics, and adopts qualitative in-depth interviews and quantitative empirical research. Firstly, empirical models were established to analyze the experience and attitudes of mobility of young people in Taiwan prior to 2015. Then, in-depth interviews of specific group of young Taiwanese labor force working overseas in both China and Southeast Asia were made. The impacts of the US-China trade war and COVID-19 pandemic were considered to effectively summarize the true motives and factors that influence the brain drain of the young population. The paper concluded that low salary wages was not the primary factor that prompted young people to work abroad as indicated by the domestic media in Taiwan. The decisive factors for working abroad are future business opportunities and career development in overseas markets. Furthermore, the cost of starting a business is a crucial factor whether they are in China or ASEAN countries. With the rapid digital and technology development, most of the types of Taiwanese young entrepreneurs in China and Southeast Asian countries are now shifted to higher professional, low capital knowledge services and e-commerce sector related. In terms of national politics influence, both China’s economic incentives/measures offered for the Taiwanese citizens and Tsai Ing-wen government’s The New Southbound Policy made no significant impact on the willingness of young Taiwanese people to work or start a business in China and Southeast Asia countries. On the other hand, the US-China trade war has influenced young Taiwanese businessmen to move to the ASEAN countries. In addition, COVID-19 situation has a minimum impact on the young Taiwanese labor force in China. For the young people who have started a business and made investments in the ASEAN countries, they have returned to Taiwan temporarily due to the COVID-19, but most of them indicated that they would return to the ASEAN countries to do business once the pandemic situation improves. In terms of policy recommendations, this paper demonstrates that it is necessary for Taiwan to establish a talent tracking database, integrating government talent policies systematically. At the same time, digital infrastructure should be improved and human resource training in the knowledge-based service industry should be strengthened.