從攻勢現實主義探討中國海權發展對東亞相對權力局勢的意涵（1985~2015 年）

An Offensive Realist Assessment of the Implications of China's Seapower for East Asian Relative Power, 1985-2015

柯玉蓮(Erin A. Clark)

指導教授 ： 陳世民

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201601413

摘要

近年來中國海權發展以及其對區域的影響引起學者的關注和辯論，引起筆者的研究動機。本文試圖運用以米爾斯海默攻勢現實主義為基礎的分析架構，研究中國東亞海權發展對區域相對潛在權力和相對實質權力局勢的意涵。即便美國作為東亞的最強國家，美國並非屬於區域內國家，因此本文不僅關注於中美相對權力差距的變遷，並且研究中國與區域內國家相對權力差距的更動。
首先，第一章作為本研究的緒論，解釋本文的動機和目的，並且探討本文的文件分析方法。第一章也解釋本文運用的攻勢現實主義理論的基本邏輯。接著第一章的基本解釋，第二章闡明，本文對米爾斯海默攻勢現實主義的延伸及運用。其次，本文第三章解釋主導中國海權運用的戰略如何發展出來。第三章爬梳，中國海權戰略 1985 年至 2015 年底的變遷與發展，並分析主導海權戰略與戰役層次運用的關鍵概念。
第四章主要分析第三章所解釋的中國權戰略和戰役目標。第四章探討中國 1985 年以來的海權發展，並且特別關注中國海權反艦作戰能力。本章研究中國海權對美國區域前沿軍事存在的威脅，分析中國戰時拒止美國進入、阻止美國區域行動的能力，並且分析中國掌握控制權，實現東亞局部優勢的能力。
第五與第六章著重於中國平時如何對區域內國家運用海權，分析中國海權運用對東亞相對潛在權力局勢的意涵。不同於第四章的分析，由於第五和第六章關注中國海權運用對區域相對潛在權力的影響，這兩章多專注於中國「白殼」艦隊的運用。第五與第六章研究中國如何運用海權阻止東亞國家資源開發，爭奪和支配東海與南海重要生物與非生物資源。
本文第七章則作為總體評估，分析中國海權重要發展趨勢，以及其對東亞相對權力局勢的意涵。第七章從長期的視角，看中國如何運用海權削弱美國區域相對實質權力，根據已浮現的趨勢推論未來東亞相對實質權力局勢的變遷。第七章也探討中國在東亞的強制力增強趨勢，歸納中國海權運用對未來區域相對潛在權力局勢和相對實質權力局勢的意涵。最後則歸納，中國挑戰並削弱美國東亞前沿軍事存在的能力繼續上升，使得中國得以加強其平時嚇阻能力，和強化其對區域內國家─尤其是南海沿海國─的強制力。
第八章為結論。首先，第八章解釋本文的主要論點，再提到本文可能的學術貢獻，以及探討未來研究展望。

關鍵字

東亞 ； 南海 ； 東海 ； 海權 ； 相對實質權力 ； 相對潛在權力 ； 強制力

並列摘要

In recent years, China’s seapower development and its effects on the region have piqued interest and given rise to debate. This thesis attempts to apply an analytical framework based on John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism to study the effects of China’s regional seapower on East Asia’s relative latent and actual power.
Although the United States is the most powerful actor in the region, it is not a permanent presence. Therefore, this thesis will examine not only the relative power dynamic between the United States and China, but will also consider how China’s regional seapower is affecting the relative power dynamic between China and regional states.
The first chapter explains the underlying motivation of this work and introduces the methodology and theory to be employed, while the second chapter fully lays out the theoretical basis for this thesis, describing in detail how John J. Mearsheimer’s theory of offensive realism has been adapted and applied within this research. The third chapter moves on to provide an analysis of the theoretical development directing Chinese seapower development and application. Chapter three reviews the development of China’s seapower theory from 1985 to 2015 and analyzes key concepts underpinning the application of Chinese seapower at the strategic and campaign levels.
The fourth chapter explores China’s seapower development since 1985, paying particular attention to anti-surface warfare capabilities. This chapter studies the Chinese sea-based threat to the United States’ forward presence in East Asia and analyzes Chinese seapower’s anti-access and area denial capabilities vis-a-vis the United States. Chapter four concludes with a discussion of Chinese seapower’s ability to establish air and sea control, and to achieve local superiority in relation to regional states.
Chapters five and six focus on the peacetime application of Chinese seapower within East Asia. As opposed to the analysis provided in chapter four, the discussion in chapters five and six pertains primarily to the implications of Chinese seapower for relative latent power. As such, these two chapters center on China’s “white hulls” and their use both in preventing other littoral states from exploiting regional resources and in securing living and non-living resources in the East and South China Seas for Chinese exploitation.
The seventh chapter draws on the analysis of previous chapters and offers an overall assessment of trends in Chinese seapower development and implications for East Asian relative power. Unlike the preceding chapters, chapter seven identifies current trends and makes long-term projections for regional power based on these trends. Specifically, this chapter explores how China is using and will use seapower to weaken the United States’ relative actual power within East Asia and to strengthen its coercive power with regard to regional states. Chapter seven reaches the conclusion that Chinese seapower’s capability to challenge and weaken the United States’ forward military presence in East Asia continues to grow. As a result of this growth, Chinese seapower is providing—and will continue to provide—China with increased deterrent and coercive power vis-a-vis regional states, particularly the littoral states of the South China Sea.
The final chapter of this thesis serves as a brief conclusion. After explaining the primary findings of this work, chapter eight offers possible contributions of this thesis to future academic research, and explores potential avenues for future research.

並列關鍵字

East Asia ； East China Sea ； South China Sea ； Seapower ； Relative Latent Power ； Relative Actual Power ； Coercive Power

參考文獻

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