國際銅價決定機制與影響因素之實證分析

An Empirical Study on the Determination Mechanism and Influential Factors of International Copper Prices

王尊賢(Tsun-Hsien Wang)

指導教授 ： 林師模

中原大學/商學院/國際貿易研究所/碩士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200600072

摘要

在近年來國際經濟快速發展下，倫敦金屬交易所（LME）之國際銅價由1997年10月的均價每噸2,052.26美元，上漲至2005年10月的均價每噸4,059.76美元，漲幅高達97.8%，將近一倍。由於銅是經濟發展上最重要且運用最廣的基本金屬，銅的應用中，64%是運用在目前影響全球經濟發展最大的電子電機產業，而其中60%是使用在電線電纜此一影響各國基礎建設的重要產業，且銅亦佔線纜產業各產品成本20~95%不等；因此，瞭解國際銅價之重要影響因素將有助於相關用銅產業，尤其是線纜產業，有效降低購銅成本之風險，提早因應變局，進而增加產業之競爭力。
本研究主要在探討國際銅價決定機制與影響因素。首先，先就國際銅價決定機制及相關影響因素做敘述性探討，並佐以相關走勢圖觀察，而考量之相關因素包括供需關係、國際經濟發展、全球物價水準、銅的生產成本、投資基金操作、相關商品如石油的價格波動、美元匯率、用銅行業發展趨勢的變化等面向；接下來，本研究對銅及線纜產業及其兩者相關性做探討，實證的方法則主要以VECM方法估計並觀察各影響因素間之衝擊反應函數，以分析變數間的相互影響情形，也同時分析各因素間之長短期影響關係。
本研究實證結果發現，LME庫存量、美國及大陸工業生產指數、OPEC原油價格等皆會對LME銅價產生長短期影響；LME庫存量與LME銅價為反向影響關係，美國及大陸工業生產指數、OPEC原油價格與LME銅價則為正向影響關係。針對此一結果，本研究建議國內相關電線電纜產業在採購銅板時，應觀察的相關影響因素包括如銅供需狀況、國際上主要國家經濟發展狀況、及相關商品價格如油價等。當這些變數的發展會預期到長期國際銅價的上漲時，應增加長約採購比例，以降低營運風險並確保供料穩定。

關鍵字

國際銅價 ； 衝擊反應函數 ； VECM ； LME庫存量

並列摘要

Because of the rapid international economic growth in recent years, the average international copper price of London Metal Exchange (LME) has risen to US$4,059.76 per ton in October 2005 from US$2,052.26 per ton in October 1997. The price growth is 97.8%, which is almost double. Copper is the most important and most used basic metal and has great influence in world’s economic development. 64% of the Copper is used in the electronic industry, which is the industry impacting the global economic development deeply. Among the 64% usage in electronic industry, 60% is used to make electric wire & cable that are influential to the infrastructure in every nation. 20%~95% of electric wire & cable product costs are copper. Therefore, understanding the facts that impact international copper price is helpful to the whole copper industry, especially the electric wire & cable industry. The understanding of the influential factors in copper price and further lowering copper cost can help enhance the competitiveness of the industry.
This study focuses on the discussion of international copper prices determination mechanism and influential factors of international copper prices. In the first half of the study, there is a descriptive discussion on the international copper price determination mechanism and influential factors, which is supported by trend analysis of many factors including demand & supply relation, global economic development, global price standard, copper costs, investment funds operation, oil price fluctuation, exchange rate of USD, development of copper related industries and etc. In the second half of this study, there is a discussion on the correlation between copper and electric wire & cable industry. The verification method is VECM method which will be used to estimate and observe the impulse response functions between various factors. This method can analyze the influence and long-term or short-term impact between different factors.
This study has proved that LME inventory, USA & Chinas’ industrial production index and OPEC oil price can all influence LME copper price in either long-term or short-term period. It shows LME inventory and LME copper price has a negative influential relation while USA & Chinas’ industrial production index and OPEC oil price have positive influential relation with LME copper price. Based on the analysis of this study, it is suggested that domestic electric wire & cable industry shall observe relevant influential factors such as demand & supply situation of copper, economic development situations of several important nations in the world, oil price, and etc. When these variables predict a long-term rise in the international copper price, the industry should increase procurement proportion by contract to lower operational risks and maintain stability of the material supply.

並列關鍵字

VECM ； impulse response functions ； International copper prices ； LME inventory

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