壽險業財務問題探討以系統動力學為實證研究

A Study of System Dynamics Approach in Life Insurance Industry Financial Problem

江家縈(Chia-Ying Chiang)

指導教授 ： 劉立倫

中原大學/商學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2008年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200800262

摘要

由於台灣保險市場開放自由競爭及各項業務的放寬管制，保險公司逐漸失去清償能力，是目前政府、保險公司及保戶各方關切之重要問題。就保險產業而言，
面臨了市場惡性競爭、商品需求日益增加與失去清償能力等多重危機與壓力，就保戶而言，若不懂得如何去慎選保險公司以及不了解自身權益，可能會遭受財產
損失，就監理機關而言，必須設法有效控管保險公司以防止倒閉事件之發生甚至危害台灣金融體系之健全，以維護社會與經濟之安定發展。
因此，本研究藉由系統動力學(System Dynamics)之模型建立與政策分析，針對三家台灣金控公司旗下之壽險子公司建立財務評估模型以符合現行財務狀況以找出影響其財務狀況的主要因素及其影響的範圍。故本研究主要目的有三，一為以系統動力學建構壽險產業財務模型；二為探討影響壽險產業財務狀況主要關鍵因素；三為進行政策模擬作為壽險公司財務管理及業務發展等經營方向之參考。
本研究之政策模擬情境為「保費收入」、「保險給付及賠款」與「承保及佣金支出」，以此三項財務因素作為測試模擬變數，模擬情境則為「提高保費收入成率」、「控制保險給付及賠款支出」與「調降承保及佣金支出」。研究結果發現：
在模擬期間內採取之財務變數及模擬結果所獲得訊息得知，「保費收入」對公司盈虧現象佔有重要影響因素；保險給付及賠款占其營業成本高達30%的比重，若可以適當的控制保險給付及賠款支出可預見其盈餘成長幅度的增加。

關鍵字

財務狀況 ； 系統動力學 ； 壽險公司

並列摘要

Owing to the open competition and relaxed restriction, the lack of solvency in
Taiwan insurance industry has became a concern for different involved parties such as
insurers, policyholders, and governments. As far as the insurance industry is
concerned, it faces the fierce competition, increasing product demand, and lack of
solvency. For the policyholders, to protect their own rights and interests, they should
know how to choose appropriate insurers. For the regulators, to stabilize the social
and economic development, they must take measures to monitor the insurers and
prevent insurers from being bankrupt.
Thus, the research is going to firstly build a financial estimate model with the
help of system dynamics which has effective prediction ability. Aiming three insurers
under financial holdings companies, the update financial estimate model is expected
to find out the major factors which affect their financial positions and the scope they
affect. The purposes of the research are listed below. Firstly, a financial model for
insurers will firstly be built via system dynamics model. Secondly, the relative
discussion will be developed upon its results. Thirdly, a policy simulation will be
engaged for the insurers which could be a reference when proceeding financial
management and business development.
In the phase of policy simulation, there are three simulation variables: insurance
premium received, benefit paid to policyholders, and acquisition and commission
expenses. The simulation situations are increasing the growth rate of insurance
premium received, controlling benefit paid to policyholders, and decreasing
acquisition and commission expenses. The results indicate that the insurance premium
received is heavily responsible to the profit and loss of insurance companies. In
addition, the benefit paid to the policyholders accounts for as high as 30% of
operating costs. If the benefit paid to the policyholders could be controlled
appropriately, the growth rate of earnings is expected to be widened in the future.

並列關鍵字

Financial situation ； System Dynamics ； Insurance company

參考文獻

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