臺灣觀光遊樂業季節性之研究

A Research of Seasonal Effect in the Tourism Amusement Park Industry of Taiwan

蕭証遠(Jeng-Yuan Hsiao)

指導教授 ： 陳宗玄 ； 李宜玲

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/休閒事業管理系/碩士(2017年)

摘要

遊樂園是我國重要的戶外遊憩事業，民國80年代呈現蓬勃發展，近年來因國內經濟與少子化等因素，使遊樂園遊客呈現成長趨緩，甚至減少的跡象，本研究預期此現象也將對台灣遊樂業的發展造成影響。

因此本研究採用了交通部觀光局每年出刊之「觀光統計月報」，由民國94年至104年統計之數據加以分析，以X12-ARIMA方法，來分析台灣遊樂業季節性，瞭解台灣遊樂業入園遊客概況與分析臺台灣遊樂業季節性變化，並根據研究結果，提出建議提供台灣遊樂業之參考。

分析結果顯示在季節性中剛好配合到，冬季的年假夏季的暑假和春季的春假，數據顯示結果為假期的關係是台灣民眾到遊樂業入園消費的最大時期，這顯示國內遊樂園的季節性屬於制度化的季節性。

關鍵字

遊樂園 ； 季節性 ； X12-ARIMA方法

並列摘要

The theme park industry had been an important outdoor leisure industry since the 1980’s. Recent years due to the influence of economics and low fertility rate in Taiwan. The popularity of theme park had gradually slipped, even worse had declined. This research is a prediction about the development and future prospective of theme park industry in Taiwan.

Therefore, this research is based on information collected from a journal called【Tourism Monthly Statistics】 from the Tourism Bureau under the Ministry of Transportation and Communications. The research identifies statistical analysis from the year 2005 to 2015. The research focuses on the seasonal analysis of the theme park industry utilizing the X12-ARIMA method, another aim of this research is to provide a broader summary as reference for theme park businesses in Taiwan.

The result showed an identical match between the popularity of theme parks versus seasonal dynamic. During the Winter New Year Holiday season and Spring Break which falls in Spring of each year, evidentally displays a relationship indicating that Taiwanese pay to enter theme park the most during these periods in a year. Which also proves that theme park business is standardized to seasonal change.

並列關鍵字

theme park ； seasonal ； X12-ARIMA method

參考文獻

17. 楊文廣、何秉燦、李素箱（2008）。台灣主題遊樂園發展現況探討。朝陽學報，13，247-270。

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