台灣國際觀光旅館營收之季節性研究

The Study of Seasonality in Taiwan International Tourism Hotel Revenue

紀建平(Chien-Ping Chi)

指導教授 ： 陳宗玄

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/休閒事業管理系/碩士(2015年)

摘要

觀光產業為易受到季節性影響產業，旅館事業為該產業重要一環，本研究以台灣國際觀光旅館為對象，選樣期間為1999-2013年，針對台灣七個區域國際觀光旅館月營運資料來進行季節性研究。透過時間數列與季節調整 X-12-ARIMA 方法以萃取計算標準化季節調整因子做為季節性型態判斷依據。採行綜合檢定程序來進行檢定求取調整數列之季節性可認定性不可移動性檢定與品質。另外，考量2003年界外値影響，本研究將選樣期間修改為2004-2013年重新估算營收之季節調整因子，經過比對兩種期間獲得各年度、月份季節調整因子平均值，就其資料顯現特性差異性不大，顯示出所獲得季節性型態為穩定且具可認定性。得出下列研究結果:
( 1 ). 台北區國際觀光旅館季節性不明顯，但具有營收多重旺季。
( 2 ). 高雄、台中、桃竹苗、其他區域營收季節以年初、年底為明顯旺季。其餘時間多為季節性不明顯或者為淡季；花蓮區與風景區國際觀光旅館總收入季節性則以2, 7, 8月旺季最為明顯其季節性十分明顯。
( 3 ). 各地區國際觀光旅館房務營收顯示出11月份為淡季，4月份為餐飲收入淡季時段。
( 4 ). 台北、台中、高雄、桃竹苗與其他區之總收入季節性跟餐飲季節性有明顯相關性，但跟房務收入季節性相關性不高。花蓮、風景地區之總收入季節性跟房務入、餐飲季節性有明顯相關性。
( 5 ). 台北、台中、高雄、桃竹苗與其他區均為於都會內範圍內，總營收季節性受餐飲部份影響較大受房務收入影響較小，對於季節性因應能力會比較佳。而花蓮、風景地區國際觀光旅館其季節型態比較明顯且集中，對於營運資金與人力等後勤支援會產生時段集中性，對於這兩地業者維繫服務品質與資源調配以因應季節性衝擊具有較高挑戰。

關鍵字

季節性檢定 ； 季節性型態 ； 國際觀光旅館 ； X-12-ARIMA

並列摘要

Seasonality has impacts on tourism and its related industries, regarded as traditionally. Hotels played as crucial parts of tourism industry should consider seasonality in its operations. In this paper, taking 7 different area’s Taiwan international tourism hotels, from 1999 to 2013, as subjects, we used X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method to extract seasonal factors as seasonal indicators from their operational revenues and studied these 7-area international tourism hotel’s revenue seasonal patterns. In assuring the quality of adjusted seasonal series and factors, combined test procedure were employed and got satisfied test results. Besides, considering the outlier effects of 2003, due to SARS epidemic disease, we resample from 2004 to 2013, redo seasonal adjustment and find similar seasonal pattern. There are conclusions shown as below:
1. Taipei area international tourism hotels had multiple peak seasons and no obvious seasonality
2. In Kaohsiung, Taichung, Tao-Zhu-Miao and other areas, these international tourism hotel’s operation income had peak seasons at the beginning and the end of year. The rest of year, there were no strong seasonal effects. In Hualian and scenic areas, February, July and August were peak seasons and had strong seasonality.
3. We find most international tourism hotel in Taiwan had less seasonal phenomena, except for Hualian and scenic areas. Because of tourism hotel’s locations in urban areas, therefore, no strong seasonality in these hotel’s revenue.
4. We find there existed common slack season in September from room rental and in April from dinning revenue.
5. In seasonality correlation analysis, we find only in Hualian and scenic areas, hotel total revenue’s seasonal indicators strongly related to room and dinning’s. It shows seasonality could have greater impacts in these area’s international tourism hotels.

並列關鍵字

seasonal combined test ； seasonal pattern ； International tourism hotel ； X-12-ARIMA

參考文獻

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