家戶機動車輛持有狀態與使用需求模式之研究

Household Joint Decision on Car/Motorbike Ownership Status and Use

周榮昌(Rong-Chang Jou) ； 劉祐興(Yu-Hsin Liu) ； 王薇晴(Wei-Ching Wang)

《運輸計劃季刊》 33卷1期 (2004/03) Pp. 83-114

https://doi.org/10.6402/TPJ.200403.0083

摘要

本研究之目的在於建立舞十單位機動車輛（包括汽車與機車）之持有與使用聯合決策模式，主要係以個體經濟學之消費者行為理論為基礎，考慮家計單位在特定之預算限制條件下（受汽機車之固定成本及變動成本所影響），使家計單位之效用最大化，並藉由雙對數需求函數、直接效用與間接效用的轉換與比較，求得家計單位汽機車持有組合之機率。實證方面，本研究將以實際調查所得之台中市家戶持有機動車輛之資料代入本研究所構建之模式，以基因演算法進行參數的校估。應用模式校估所求得之參數值，進一步探討在所得、固定成本及變動成本改變的情況下，對家計單位機動車輛之持有與使用的影響程度。經由敏感度分析結果顯示，機動車輛持有數在兩部以上者，其汽車之變動成本對里程數的影響最大，機車則是以所得對里程數影響最大，此結果說明當家計單位機動車輛持有數達某一水準時，若欲控制汽機車之使用量，則應分別針對不同車種制訂不同的策略始能收其效果。

關鍵字

持有與使用 ； 直接效用 ； 間接效用 ； 基因演算法 ； 彈性

並列摘要

In this study, a model for the household decision on car/motorbike ownership and use is developed, estimated, and applied. The model takes both cars and motorbikes into account. It is mainly based on the microeconomic theory of consumer behavior in which the fixed and variable car/motorbike costs are two main components of budget restriction. The probabilities of car/motorbike ownership are derived and calculated by comparing direct and indirect utilities. A disaggregate data set at the level of individual households was obtained based on the household interviews conducted in Taichung City in 2000. Genetic Algorithm is applied to calibrate the parameters and further figure out the impact of changes in variable car/motorbikes, fixed car/motorbike costs, household income, and combinations of these on the household car/motorbike ownership and use. In general, the long-term income elasticity is greater than the variable cost elasticity and the fixed cost elasticity. The policy analysis also indicates that variable costs have more effects on reducing vehicle use. It is, therefore, a good direction for authorities to consider such strategies to improve transportation environment.

並列關鍵字

Ownership and use ； Direct and indirect utilities ； Genetic Algorithm ； Elasticity

參考文獻

de Jong, G. C.(1990).An Indirect Utility Model of Car Ownership and Private Car Use.European Economic Review.34,971-985.

周榮昌、翁美娟(2001)。家計單位小客車持有及使用模式之建立。運輸學刊。13(3)

Berkovec, J.,Rust, J.(1985).A Nested Logit Model of Automobile Holdings for One Vehicle Households.Transportation Research.19,275-285.

Berkovec, J.(1985).Forecasting Automobile Demand Using Disaggregate Choice Models.Transportation Research.19,315-329.