本研究首先利用修正式德爾菲法和層級評分法建構農地評價模型,再應用所發展的農地評價模型評估台南縣農地發展潛力。本文乃參考文獻進行專家學者問卷調查,確認5個評估項目和18個影響因子之農地評價模型階層圖,並透過對偶比較問卷調查,以層級評分法求得各評估準則之權重(即重要度),及依據法規或理論訂定各影響因子之評分標準。本文乃利用所建構之農地評價模型,透過層級分析法AHP,評估各鄉(鎮、市)農地發展潛力之優劣,並以等級相關比較專家和學者評估的差異及分析農地發展潛力與地價之相關性。最後,以層級分析法探討農地評價模型之敏感性分析。
This study uses the modified Delphi technique and the hierarchy scoring method to build an evaluation model of agricultural land-use potential that appraises development possibilities of agricultural land in Tainan county. First, there are five evaluation items and eighteen effect factors to construct hierarchy of the evaluation model by references and evaluation of experts and scholars. All weights of criteria can be calculated by the hierarchy scoring method. The standards of effect factors scores are subscribed by regulation or theory. Then, the model assesses development possibilities of agricultural land in Tainan county through the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). Rank correlation coefficient can find different of evaluation between experts and scholars. The association of agricultural land development potential and land price is analyzed. Finally, sensitivity analysis of the model is discussed by AHP.