房地產是一般民眾重要投資工具,房屋價格更是大家關注的議題。因此了解影響房價的因素,就能進一步研判房價起伏的原因。 本研究探討總體經濟因素對房價之影響,蒐集自1991年7月至2007年12月的信義房屋房價指數與經濟成長率、貨幣供給額、消費者物價指數年增率、股票加權指數年增率、原油價格、營建股股價加權指數的數據資料,使用單根檢定,經由一階差分後,皆拒絕單根存在之虛無假設,所有時間序列呈現穩定狀態;再使用迴歸分析,研判是否有影響效果及顯著關係,實證結果顯示,各項總體經濟因素皆呈現正向明顯關係。 近期國際原油、鋼鐵、原物料價格上漲,依本研究推論,房屋價格將呈現上揚趨勢。
The real estate has long been an important tool of investment to the common populace of Taiwan. The house price is thus the subject of everybody‘s attention in Taiwan. The understanding of the influence factors on the house price will help predict the house price fluctuations, and will be of great help in making investment decisions. This research investigates the macroeconomic factors’ influence on the house price. We collected the house price indices, dating from July, 1991 to December, 2007,of the Sinyi Real Estate Co. Ltd. and tested them with the following macroeconomic factors: 1) economical growth rate, 2) currency supplies volume, 3) the year increasing rate of consumer price index, 4) the year increasing rate of stock weighting index , 5) crude oil price, and 6) the data material of weighting index of the construction stock price. The simple root test by first-order differential equations, rejects the null hypothesis of the existence of a unit root; all time series present a steady state. We then run the regression analysis, a useful tool in estimating the influential effect and the conspicuous relations. The results suggest a positive correlation between the macroeconomic factors and the house price. With the international crude oil futures hitting a historical high, and the price of the steel and iron, and other original materials climbing an uphill slope, we predict that the house price of Taiwan will remain buoyant for a while.