臺灣房價與民間消費之關聯性研究

在2002年SARS危機解除、亞洲金融危機造成的通貨緊縮趨勢漸緩後，臺灣的房價迎來了一波連續成長，雖因2008年美國次貸風暴造成臺灣房價短暫下跌情形，之後又保持上升趨勢，直至今日。而傳統認為房地產為火車頭工業，可帶領總體經濟成長，且有研究證實價格上漲應會帶來財富效果、增加民間消費、促進GDP成長，故臺灣房價上漲期間同時應伴隨總體經濟成長，但近年來不斷攀升的房價與房價所得比成為社會熱門議題，甚至造成大量民怨。而近年亦有研究認為房價上漲會帶來排擠效果，可能導致消費減少、有礙總體經濟成長。於是本研究探討房價上漲帶來的財富效果與排擠效果，以台灣地區的房價與民間消費作為研究對象，以向量自我迴歸模型作為實證方法，探討房價上漲與民間消費的相互關係。研究結果顯示，在房價上漲初期帶來的財富效果可能高於排擠效果，但上漲幅度過高時則會造成較大的排擠效果，導致民間消費減少。惟因研究資料限制，尚無法針對不同所得、是否擁有自有住宅、擁有住宅數量做不同族群分析，進而探討房價上漲對不同族群造成的影響差異。鑒於研究結果，當房價上漲幅度過高時，可能導致經濟環境衰退，故政府應衡量房價之成長趨勢是否為健康成長，適當透過政策控管房價、房價所得比，避免房價過度上漲，導致國民可支配所得遭到排擠、降低民間消費，反而對整體經濟環境造成負面影響。

關鍵字

房價；民間消費；財富效果；排擠效果；向量自我迴歸模型

並列摘要

After the SARS crisis in 2002 and deflation caused by the Asian financial crisis slowed down, housing prices of Taiwan kept growing until now except that 2008 financial crisis caused a short decrease of housing prices. Real estate is considered a locomotive that can lead overall economic growth, and researches have confirmed that rising prices should cause wealth effects, increase private consumption, and promote GDP growth. Therefore, economic should grow while housing prices of Taiwan rise. However, the rising ratio of housing price to income has become a hot issue in society, and even caused public grievances. In recent years, some researches have confirmed that rising prices maybe cause crowding-out effect which may reduce consumption and hobble economic growth. Therefore, this research explores the wealth effect and crowding-out effect caused by rising housing prices. With the housing prices and private consumption in Taiwan as the research object, the vector self-regression model is used as an empirical method to explore the relationship between rising housing price and private consumption. The result show that wealth effect may higher than the crowding-out effect when the housing price rise initially, but it will cause large crowding-out effect resulting a decrease in private consumption when the increase it too high. However, due to the limitation of research data, different impacts caused by rising housing prices have not been analyzed about people with different income, whether they own their own houses, and the number the own. According to the research results, when the housing price rise is too high, it may lead to economic recession. Therefore, the government should measure whether the growth of housing prices is appropriate, apply some policies to control rise of housing price and the ratio of housing price to income, and avoid excessive housing price increases leading to reduce private consumption which has a negative impact on the overall economic.