摘要:本文以管理當局公佈自願性財務預測前的分析師對公司之財務預測,當做市場對公司的盈餘預期,實證結果發現,在揭露期間(揭露前一天至後一天) (1)盈餘變異性與財務預測反應係數正相關。(2)不同來源媒體的分析師報導與財務預測反應係數正相關。(3)分析師預測準確度與財務預測反應係數負相關。(4)分析師預測公佈時點距離年初之日數與財務預測反應係數負相關。(5)管理當局預測準確度與財務預測反應係數正相關。(6)當年度管理當局僅有公佈自願性財務預測者之財務預測反應係數較強制性財務預測與自願性財務預測皆有公佈者之財務預測反應係數大,與財務預測反應係數正相關。
Abstract:Using analyst’s earnings forecast before management voluntary earnings forecast as market earnings expectation, the empirical results suggest during the disclosure period is as following:(1) The earnings variance is positively related to the reactor of earning forecast. (2) From different media of analyst’s earnings forecast reports are positively related to the reactor of earnings forecast. (3) The exactitude of analyst’s earnings forecast is negatively related to the reactor of earnings forecast. (4) The period of far from the first day of the year to the issued date of analyst’s earnings forecast is negatively related to the reactor of earnings forecast. (5) The exactitude of management voluntary earnings forecast is positively related to the reactor of earnings forecast. (6) Solely has voluntary earnings forecast in the year which reactor of earnings forecast is larger with positive relation.