都市脆弱度指標可以用於評估在面對氣候變遷下都市脆弱度的影響狀態,其不僅可以描述現況及脆弱度影響狀態,同時亦可以作為現在及未來在面對氣候變遷下所產生的脆弱度評量指標。在目前所建立的脆弱度指標,雖然指標本身能夠分析初地區為哪一類型之脆弱度,然而在估算時仍缺乏互動性之考量。因此本研究利用脆弱度之三個關鍵因素:暴露性(exposure)、敏感性(sensitivity)和其適應能力(adaptive capacity)建立其都市脆弱度,進一步利用STELLA系統動態建立一系統模型,並利用此模型模擬都市脆弱度指標間之因果互動關係。最後透過情境模擬的方式,模擬研究範圍─高雄都會區在不同情境下都市脆弱度的變動情形。
Urban vulnerability indicator can be used to assess the effect of climate change on the vulnerability state. In addition to the descripton of current status and the impact on vulnerability, the indicator com also be used to assesc vulnerability under climate change in the future. Although each indicator com analyze the degree of vulnerability by itself, however, it is still in lack of consideration on the interaction among different vulnerability indicators. This thesis uses three key factors of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and its adaptive capacity to establish the system fromwork of urban vulnerability. Further, STELLA software is used to build a system dynamic model to simulate the causal relationship between urban vulnerability indicators. Finally, the model is used to simulate Kaohsiung metropolitan area the change of urban vulnerability urban different scenarios.