臺灣企業財務危機預警模型建構之研究

劉邦典; 梁榮輝; 粘元馨

doi:10.6736/JPSR.200712_4(3).0002

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Social Sciences > Management

DOI： 10.6736/JPSR

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臺灣企業財務危機預警模型建構之研究

A Study on Constructing the Financial Crisis Model of Taiwanese Enterprises

劉邦典(Pan-Tien Lieu) ；梁榮輝(Jung-Hui Liang) ；粘元馨(Yuan-Shin Lan)

績效與策略研究； 4卷3期 (2007 / 12 / 01) ， P15 - 27

繁體中文 DOI： 10.6736/JPSR.200712_4(3).0002

財務危機；預警模型； Logistic迴歸；區別分析；非財務指標； Financial crisis ； discriminated regions model ； binary logistic regression model ； Non-financial index

Abstract │ Reference (30) │ Times Cited (11) │ Altmetrics

Abstract 〈TOP〉

Parallel Abstract 〈TOP〉

This study shows the combination of financial index and accountants auditing opinions as the predictors of the financial statements crisis models. We take 40 samples as the experiments study, which one half samples are financial crisis and the same numbers of the regular companies. Besides, we review the former studies and some experiences about the laws and regulations. So totally, we collect 5 items of regulations on corporate governance variables and 7 items of input variables.
This study adopts the discriminated regions methods and binary logistic regression model to explore the financial crisis corporations. The results show that there are some good predictors, which we adopt the corporate governance variables and accountant opinions. While there are one season time lag, the performances of the binary logistic regression model is superior than the discriminated regions model. Except the time lags is 2-4 seasons before. The best performance is to hedge the risk of investors. Their superior performance shows on different region area, e.g. the discriminated regions model is better than the binary logistic regression model at the one season lag. But the binary logistic regression model is better than the discriminated regions model at the former 2-4 seasons. The results provide the good predictors to reduce some risks and costs of companies for financial risks.

Reference ( 30 ) 〈TOP〉

Altman, E.I.(1968).Financial Ratios, Discriminated Analysis, and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy.Journal of Finance,23(4),589-609.
Amir F. Atiya(2001).Bankruptcy Prediction for Credit Risk Using Neural Networks: A Survey and New Results.IEEE Transactions JNL on Neural Netowrks,12(4)
Beaver, W.H.(1966).Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure in Empirical Research in Accounting: Selected studies.Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research,4,71-111.
Berkson, J.(1944).Application of the Logistic Function to Bio-Assay.Journal of the American Statistical Association,39,357-365.
Working Paper, Department of Finance

Times Cited ( 11 ) 〈TOP〉

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