美國總統大選與驅逐非法移民政治行動的「共伴效應」：歷史制度論觀點的分析

長久以來，人們無法了解號稱「移民天堂」的美國為何無法容忍「非法移民」，尤其是來自墨西哥的鄰居們？所以每當到了總統大選年，兩大黨陣營必然會爭論驅逐或大赦政策路線，精彩攻防的新聞也會不斷出現在美國各媒體的版面。從歷史制度論的角度，移民問題的主體是「人」，變數則是「時間」，所謂「以古觀今」，經由過去相關重大事件時間序列的分析，就有可能掌握該議題的「路徑依賴」並對其未來的政策變遷進行預測。2015年，是歐巴馬總統推動「夢想法案」讓外來移民融入美國社會政策相當挫敗的一年，新奧爾良第五上訴巡迴法庭判決歐巴馬行政改革行政命令敗訴。2016年適逢美國的總統大選年，本文主旨就在於運用歷史制度論的觀點分析美國政府加強驅逐非法移民的政治行動與總統大選年之間有無關連？是否符合歷史制度論中「路徑依賴」的概念？並且以此結果預測其未來的走向。經由本文整理，發現驅逐非法移民行動的時間序列與總統大選年密切吻合，兩者產生「共伴雙生」路徑的初始階段發生在1952年第二次大戰後的第一次美國總統大選年，之後，60年代是路徑鞏固時期；70年代是式微時期，但是到了1981年浮現出「大赦非法移民，就地合法化」的新路徑，這是當時新任雷根總統積極回應國內長期「反非法移民」主流民意兩全其美的辦法，同時也確立了以「邊境管制」的政策柵欄作為大赦路線的配套措施。當今歐巴馬總統費時八年推動的「夢想法案」失敗，恰好證明了「邊境管制」柵欄對於大赦路徑依賴路線的限制以及總統大選與驅逐路線「共伴效應」的自我強化作用，制度果然是被「選擇」(choice)出來的，而非是被「設計」(design)出來的。

關鍵字

非法移民；總統大選；歷史制度論；路徑依賴；邊境管制；共伴效應；夢想法案

並列摘要

For a long time, people can not understand the so-called ＂immigrant paradise＂ of why the United States can not tolerate ＂illegal immigrants＂, especially from Mexico's neighbors? So when the presidential election year, the two party camps inevitably controversial deportation or amnesty policy line, exciting offense and defense will continue to appear in the news media in the United States each layout. On the Historical Institutional Perspective, subject of immigration issues are ＂people＂, the variable is ＂time＂, the so-called ＂We know the future from the past＂, via analysis of past event of time series, it is possible to handle the policy path dependence and future change. 2015, President Obama is promoting the ＂Dream Act＂ allows execution immigrants assimilate into American social policy quite frustrating year, New Orleans Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals ruling against Obama's executive orders Administrative Reform. 2016 coincides with the US presidential election, the purpose of this paper is that the use of historical institutional perspective analysis of the US government ＂to strengthen the expulsion of illegal immigrants Action＂ has not connected between the ＂election year＂? Meets historical institutional theory ＂path dependence＂ concept? And predict its future tendency. This paper fond that the expulsion of illegal immigrants Action time series with the presidential election in quite match. After that, the 1960s is the path of consolidation period; 1970s is the decline period; But in 1981, the new path is ＂amnesty for illegal immigrants, local legalization＂. It was President Reagan responded positively to the new long-term domestic mainstream public opinion best of both worlds ＂anti-illegal immigration＂, but also established a policy fence ＂border control＂ as the amnesty route supporting measures. This boundary is like a wall, so that policies advocated amnesty voices never been able to cross with the formation of the election ＂accompanies effect＂ greatly narrow down the amnesty path-dependent development. Today President Obama consuming eight years to promote a ＂DREAM Act＂ fails, just to prove that ＂border control＂ for amnesty fence route path dependence limits the presidential election and expulsion route ＂accompanied effect＂ of the self-reinforcing effect, the system really is ＂ choice ＂ out, rather than being ＂design＂ out.