潛盾工程專案風險評估模式之研究

The Development of Project Risk Assessment Model for Tunnel Construction by Shield Machine

張存德(Tsween-Der , Jang)

指導教授 ： 曾惠斌

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/碩士(2008年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2008.10543

摘要

潛盾工程專案中所面臨之專案時程、施工條件的不確定性尤甚於其他產業，故應該投注更多心力於工程風險的積極掌握及控制，但國內營造廠商對風險管理技術的認知較低，大多數對於風險仍採取被動並常有亡羊補牢之心態，若能事前將各項風險分析評估並提前準備，則可將其衝擊減至最小。
有鑑於此，本研究將整理出之風險管理相關文獻及程序為基礎，建構出一套潛盾工程風險評估模式，以執行風險辨識及分類、風險定性及定量分析，評估風險之影響程度，以提供潛盾工程專案組織執行風險管理參考。本研究透過文獻回顧整理出風險事件、觸發原因、引發後果及處置步驟等，接著經由專家訪談、層級分析法等作為輔助工具，建置一套評估模式，最後結合風險量化模式，完成連貫、系統化的風險評估方法。筆者之背景係營造廠，配合實際專案執行，藉由個案導入方式分析模式在實務操作上之可行性。
本研究結合施工經驗與風險管理理論，提出一套實用的潛盾工程風險評估模式來提供專案依循操作：專案管理者可利用此模式追蹤掌控風險之狀況；公司內部之高層主管雖未直接參與專案之執行，亦可經由本量化模式計算出之專案風險分佈情形了解各工地執行之狀況，確實掌控各專案目前所遇到之危險程度及其執行風險管理之成效。

關鍵字

潛盾工程 ； 專案風險 ； 風險管理 ； 風險分析 ； 風險評估

並列摘要

The uncertainty about project schedules and constructional constraints are particularly high in shield projects than those of other industries; as a result, more efforts should be made on active monitoring and control of construction risks. However, domestic constructors are scarcely conscious of risk management techniques; most are still taking negligent or plainly remedial attitudes towards risks.If assessments and analyses of risks could be made in advance; timely preparations would be possible for reducing corresponding impacts to minimum.
Inasmuch, this research will base on collective records of risk management and relative cases, establish a risk assessment model of shield project for execution of risk recognition and catergorization, as well as qualitative and quantitation analyses, to provide shield project organization with references.
This research has collected risk events, triggers, consequences, handling steps, etc.; then constructed an assessment model assisted with experts interview and analytic hierarchy process; finally combined with the risk quantitative model, to accomplish a coherent systematic methodology of risk assessment. Also, this project has cooperated with CEC Group, verifying the viability of individual-case analysis and in-depth experts’s interview on practical operations.
Through combining constructional experiences with theories of risk management, this research propose a practical constructional risk assessment model for project operations to follow: project managers could apply this model to trace and supervise risk conditions; top managers within could also, although not directly participating in the project execution, realize conditions of constructions sites through the distribution of Project Risk Index calculated by the quantitative model, hence authentically monitor risk degrees of each project and its risk management outcome.

並列關鍵字

shield project ； project management ； risk management ； risk analysis ； risk assessment

參考文獻

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21. 徐名頤，「公共工程統包制度風險評估模式之研究」，成功建築所，民國92年

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