中國大陸對東協的經貿戰略:以「10+1」及「RCEP」為例

China's Economic Strategy Towards ASEAN : Taking 10+1 and RCEP for Examples

劉逸文(I-Wen Liu)

指導教授 ： 郭建中 ； 王國臣

淡江大學/國際研究學院/中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2014.00671

摘要

中國大陸自1978年改革開放，2001年加入WTO後，國內的經濟成長突飛猛進，在國際經濟舞台所佔的份量逐年提昇。隨著區域經濟整合在全球經貿體系運作中扮演的角色日益加重，作為全球第二大經濟體的中國大陸，不只在全球經貿體系及相關組織積極參與，同時也希望在區域經濟整合的場域中扮演主導的角色，成為國際經貿或至少是區域經貿規則的制定者，而不僅是接受者。唯有如此，中國大陸才能在全球經貿體系的運作中發揮實質影響力，使其朝向於己有利的方向發展。
地緣上，中國大陸緊鄰東南亞諸國，自古以來貿易往來就十分頻繁。東協中除了新加坡及汶萊的人均國民所得大幅超前外，大部分國家的經濟發展、產業結構及條件，都與中國大陸相去不遠，儼然成為中國大陸進行區域經濟整合的最佳試驗場域。與東協進行「10+1」經濟整合，進而主導以東協為中心的「RCEP」，在中國大陸全球經貿戰略的佈局中有其重要的意義。中國大陸先從與其整體經貿條件相當、地緣相近的東協整合開始，再徐圖與東北亞、泛太平洋地區、甚至是未來涵蓋層面更廣的區域進行經貿整合，應該是相當務實的作法。
美國作為全球第一大經濟體，2001年反恐戰爭、2008年金融海嘯、及近來高唱「重返亞洲」並主導TPP種種所謂的「美國因素」，確實牽動中國大陸在東協「10+1」及「RCEP」的戰略作為。中國大陸如何在推動「RCEP」的過程中習得未來與美國及其他區域經濟體的互動模式，是極有意義的研究課題。
因此，本論文透過文獻分析，對中國大陸在「10+1」及「RCEP」兩個不同階段進行比較；所採取的理論架構為「新古典現實主義」，探討中國大陸領導人初入東協「10+1」及現今主導「RCEP」時，面對不同的國際體系環境，如何形成戰略思維，並化為具體實踐。另也嘗試推演其未來如何與橫跨太平洋兩岸、由美國所主導的TPP互動，如何形塑其全球經貿戰略。本論文提出的看法是：早期的「10+1」階段，「中」美兩國是合作大於競爭；到了「RCEP」階段，則進入競爭大於合作的態勢；中國大陸未來應該是期望能與美國維持競合不敵對的「新型大國關係」。

關鍵字

新古典現實主義 ； 10+1 ； 區域全面經濟夥伴關係(RCEP) ； 跨太平洋 夥伴關係(TPP) ； 東亞峰會(EAS)

並列摘要

Since opining up its economy in 1978, then joining the WTO in 2001, China’s economic development has been quick and robust. Its role on the international economic stage has become more and more important ever since. As the world’s second largest economy, with regional economic integration being important in the global economic system, China has not only aggressively participated in the global economic system and related organizations, but has also attempted to take a leading position in order to set the agenda of global economic or at least regional economic rules, instead of being just a follower. That’s the only way that China could exert its real influence in the operation of the global economic system, that is to say to make sure it’s in China’s best interest.
Geographically, China is close to Southeast Asian countries. Both sides have engaged in trade activities for ages. Apart from Singapore and Brunei, which possess a relatively high GDP per capita, most ASEAN members are at a similar stage of economic development, and share a similar industrial structure with China. This is why ASEAN has become the best testing ground for regional economic integration. Since China signed an FTA with ASEAN (10+1), it has been trying to dominate the recent RCEP negotiations which ostensibly center around ASEAN. These movements are very important for China’s economic strategy. Starting with the economic integration from ASEAN, whose signatories share a similar economic structure and geographic proximity, China intends to further integrate itself economically with Northeast Asia, the Pan-Pacific region, or even territories farther afield in the future. The strategy China has adopted is quite practical.
Being the largest global economy, the US has undergone some major events such as the 2001 terrorist attacks and subsequent wars, the 2008 financial crisis, and its recent “pivot towards Asia” policy and TPP negotiations. These major events have truly affected China’s strategy towards 10+1 and RCEP with ASEAN, so it’s meaningful to study which lessons China might take from its interactions with the US and other regional economies via its participation in the RCEP negotiation process.
This thesis adopts a framework of “Neoclassical Realism” to compare China’s strategies on the 10+1 and RCEP respectively through documentary analysis. The analysis will be focused on China’s leaders’ policy-making process and related implementations, the first step in the 10+1, then trying to dominate the RCEP under shifting international conditions. The analysis also presents China’s interactions with the US and its stance on the TPP, and will suggest how these interactions might shape its global economic strategy in the future. My findings are as follows: at the early stage of 10+1, Sino-American cooperation was more pronounced than competition; throughout the negotiations for the RCEP, it has become apparent that competition is now more pronounced than cooperation. In the future, China hopes to maintain a big power relationship with the US where cooperation and competition coexist peacefully.

並列關鍵字

Neoclassical Realism ； 10+1 ； RCEP ； TPP ； EAS

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