從土地及建物複丈案件量來探討房地產景氣之研究

Investigating Real Estate Cycle From the land and structures in the amount of complex sounds terrible case Explore a study of the real estate boom

廖育震(Yu-Chen Liao)

指導教授 ： 李明榮

亞洲大學/管理學院/經營管理學系碩士在職專班/碩士(2009年)

摘要

房地產景氣乃是綜合衡量房地產投資、生產、交易、與使用等階段的活動興衰頻繁程度，本研究以本校所在的霧峰鄉及鄰近的烏日鄉與大里市作為研究之對象，彙集大里地政事務所提供之每月案件統計表，加以整理分析，並採取以「季」來作為基期。配合複丈案件分類，將其中之「分割」、「指界」、「鑑界」、「建物第一次測量」及「法院囑託測量」等五種類型之案件加以整理。針對其92年到98年間各類土地複丈與建物測量案件量的增減與房地產綜合指標間比較，透過各季數據的變化，探討其間的關聯性，並計算相互間之相關係數，以統計學上雙尾測試（two-tailed test）來檢定，設定在95﹪的信心水準（level of confidence）下，來分析各類複丈案件與景氣指標間是否有顯著的相關性。透過統計測試，獲得各類複丈案件資料與房地產景氣循環各類指標間的關聯性與相關性。進一步分析、預測房地產景氣的興衰，作為投資房地產進（出）場時間的決策依據。

關鍵字

房地產景氣 ； 土地複丈 ； 建物測量 ； 相關係數

並列摘要

The comprehensive measure of real estate cycle, production, trading, and the use of frequent rise and fall phase of the activity level, the study school located near Wufeng Township and Wurih Township, Dali City, and as subjects of research , Dali land registration authority for the collection of monthly tables of cases, and analyzed, and to take in order to "season" as the base period. Husband with the complex case classification to the one of "division", "mean world", "Kam-world", "building the first measurement" and "entrusted to the Court of measuring" five types of incidents be collated. 92 to 98 years for its various types of land between husband and building survey complex cases increase or decrease the amount of comparison and real estate indexes, through the data changes each season, discuss their relevance, and calculate the correlation coefficient between each other to two-tailed statistical test (two-tailed test) to test, set at 95% confidence level (level of confidence), the husband to analyze the various types of complex cases and the economy if there is a significant indicator of relevance. Through statistical testing, access to information on various types of complex cases husband and the real estate business cycle correlation between various indicators and relevant. Further analysis, forecasting real estate market rise or fall as investment real estate into (a) field time decision making.

並列關鍵字

real estate cycle ； land rehabilitation husband building ； measurement, the correlation coefficient

參考文獻

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