降雨-逕流-淹水(RRI)模式之探索與應用

The study and application of Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) Model

朱祐毅(You-Yi Chu)

指導教授 ： 林孟郁

中原大學/工學院/土木工程研究所/碩士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu202000902

摘要

近來氣候變遷造成的極端降雨事件趨於頻繁，小雨事件變少，大雨事件變多且降雨強度不斷提升，此等現象使得台灣地區淹水問題需要備受重視。由於經濟的快速發展，都市化的速率也跟著提高，面對氣候變遷造成的影響，城市的排水設施不當便加劇了淹水的風險。而近年來各國在因應洪水事件發展了許多淹水模式，如美國陸軍工程師團水文工程中心（Hydrologic Engineering Center，簡稱 HEC）開發之洪水演算（HEC-RAS）軟體抑或是由荷蘭 WL Delft Hydraulics 所發展SOBEK模式。這些淹水數值模式都對台灣的防洪工程與計畫做出了極大的貢獻。
本研究使用RRI二維淹水模式Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) Model，針對在台北、新北市淡水河流域進行氣候變遷情境下之數值模擬。RRI-Model是一個能夠同時模擬降雨逕流與洪水淹沒的二維模型，並且考慮了水在土地及河流間的交互作用以及平地與山地的入滲狀況。在RRI二維淹水淹沒模式有分圖形介面以及命令提示字元，而本研究主要是以命令提示字元為主，透過地理資訊系統Geographic Information System(GIS)將現地的地理資料轉換成數據形式以RRI-Model將現有水文資料模擬分析，再以不同的方式呈現河流狀況及淹水情況選定淡水河流域配合2015年之蘇迪勒颱風降雨事件進行模式驗證。蘇迪勒颱風是台灣近幾年來影響劇烈的颱風，屬於典型的極端降雨事件。模擬結果顯示在河水水位高度及流量方面與實際情況的數據貼近，在淹水範圍方面雖然並未詳細淹水整體範圍，但是就以實際災害報告與模擬淹水高度而言屬於可以接受的範圍。而後即可對淡水河進行現有雨量站的降雨重現期以及在河口地形抬升時所發生的迴水狀況進行模擬，並且對未來數十年的氣候變遷演化的降雨進行比對。
最後，RRI-Model是一款在操作上顯而易懂的介面，且誤差能夠在接受方面，可用在學術教學及示範，期許在未來RRI-Model能提供給學術界一份參考的資料。

關鍵字

RRI-Model ； 氣候變遷 ； 極端降雨 ； 淹水模式

並列摘要

There have been frequent occurrences of extreme rainfall incidents in recent years. The more urbanization rate, the more flooding of the city. In recent years, most of countries have developed flooded water model. For example, the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) and the River Analytical System (HEC-RAS) and SOBEK model developed by Dutch WL Delft Hydraulics
This study used the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation two-dimensional flood inundation model to simulate the climate change in the Tamsui River in Taipei City. RRI model is a two-dimensional model capable of simulating rainfall-runoff and flood inundation simultaneously. The RRI two-dimensional flooding mode has a graphical interface and command prompt. This study mainly used command prompt characters to convert local geographic data into ASCII data format through Geographic Information System.
This study selected the Tamsui River to carry out model verification in conjunction with the 2015 Typhoon Soudelor event. The results show that the water level and flow rate of the river are close to the actual data. Although there is no flooding range in terms of flooding range, it is an acceptable that the range for actual disaster reporting and simulated flooding height. The Tamsui River can be simulated for the rainfall return period of existing rainfall stations and the backwater conditions that occur when the estuary is raised and the rainfall for the evolution of climate change in the next few decades will be compare.
Finally, RRI-Model is a user-friendly and easy to understand interface and errors less. It is expected that the RRI-Model will provide a reference material for the academic community in the future.

並列關鍵字

RRI-Model ； Climate change ； Extreme rainfall ； Flooding mode

參考文獻

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