核能風險知覺、態度與風險價值的評估：台灣的實證

Nuclear Risk Perception, Risk Attitude and Risk Valuation: An Empirical Study in Taiwan

王祖恩(Tsu-En Wang)

指導教授 ： 劉錦添

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201702600

摘要

本研究合併1992, 1993, 2000, 2016 與2017年共五次能源調查資料，探討將近二十五年來台灣民眾對於核能風險知覺、風險態度與反核的願付價格的變化。主要以ordered probit模型與ordered logit模型來估計民眾核能風險知覺對於核能風險態度的影響，並考慮時間、距離以及其他個人社會經濟變數。反核的願付價格則以假設性市場評價法(Contingent Valuation Method)來估計。
研究結果顯示，二十幾年來，民眾對於核能議題關心程度提升並逐漸能表達自己贊成或反對的態度。核能風險知覺愈高會增加反對核四的機率，而發生福島核災後，民眾對於核四的反對態度顯著上升。另外，並未發現先前文獻上的鄰避效應(NYMBY syndrome)，顯示反核並無分地區性的因素。願付價格方面，風險態度較風險知覺有更決定性的影響，估計結果顯示各年度中，台北地區普遍比其他地區有較高的願付價格。

關鍵字

核能 ； 風險認知 ； 核電廠態度 ； 願付價格 ； 假設性市場評價法

並列摘要

This study is based on 1992, 1993, 2000, 2016 and 2017 of the nuclear energy survey data to examine the change of nuclear risk perception, risk attitude and the willingness to pay for anti-nuclear. We use ordered probit and ordered logit to estimate the impact of nuclear risk on risk attitude, and we also consider the effect of time, distance and other socio-economic variables. The willingness to pay (WTP) for anti-nuclear is estimated by Contingent Valuation Method.
The results show that the concern of nuclear issue is increasing and people are more willing to express their attitude toward nuclear issues over the past twenty-four years. The nuclear risk perception has positive effect on the attitude of anti-nuclear. After the Fukushima nuclear disaster, the attitude of against the fourth nuclear power plant significantly increased. Nevertheless, we did not find the NYMBY (Not in My Backyard) Syndrome in the attitude toward the nuclear power plant in Taiwan, suggesting that the attitude of anti-nuclear all over Taiwan. The consumers’ willingness to pay is in line with the bid, and attitude has more prevailing effect than risk perception in deciding the WTP. Generally, the Taipei area has higher willingness to pay than the non-Taipei area in each year.

並列關鍵字

Nuclear Power ； Risk Perception ； Attitude toward the Nuclear Power Plant ； Willingness to Pay ； Contingent Valuation Method

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