遊客之住宿選擇與住宿消費支出影響之研究－選樣偏誤模型估計法

北宜高雪山隧道的通車促使宜蘭與台北之間的距離拉近，造成宜蘭遊客消費行為改變，以及對宜蘭觀光業的衝擊。其中尤以對宜蘭旅館業者之衝擊較大，部份相關研究雖予以證實，但囿於調查資料與研究方法的侷限，研究結果未能提供有利的證據予以支持。本研究先採用民國96年交通部觀光局的國人旅遊狀況調查資料，進行兩項選樣偏誤模型分別推估影響宜蘭遊客住宿選擇與消費支出的決定性因素，首先以heckprobit模型探討宜蘭地區遊客之住宿選擇，繼以two-stage tobit估計法進行遊客住宿消費支出的估計。研究結果顯示影響遊客住宿選擇與住宿消費支出的因素並非一致，期能提供宜蘭旅館業者進行行銷策略之參考，以及供當地政府進行旅館業者輔導及觀光政策擬定之參考。

關鍵字

選樣偏誤模型；旅遊消費支出；旅遊決策

並列摘要

The new Hsuehshan Tunnel has prompted the distance between Yilan and Taipei to narrow; this has induced changes in consumer behavior among Yilan tourists as well as impacted Yilan's tourism industry. In particular, the tunnel has had a great impact on the Yilan lodging industry. While some research has been conducted to establish this phenomenon, the results are yet to be studied; this relative lack of research data and methodology necessitates the need for more conclusive evidence in support of the research result mention above. In this study, using the 2007 years of survey data mentioned above, we conducted two selection bias model to analyze the impact on Yilan tourist lodging choices and expenditure. First, using a Heckprobit Model to estimate the lodging choices of Yilan's tourists, and then employing a two-stage Tobit model to estimate the lodging expenditure of tourist. The results show that the impact of tourist lodging choices and lodging expenditures factors are not consistent. It provide references that may be accessed by the Yilan hotel industry in the framing of marketing strategies; these could be useful for the local government as well-as a basis for counseling the lodging industry and as a reference for tourism policy formulation.