建立晶圓級封裝廠產能擴充決策模式及實證研究

Construct Wafer Level Packaging Capacity Expansion Decision Analysis Model and An Empirical Study

戴國瑞

指導教授 ： 簡禎富

國立清華大學/工學院/工業工程與工程管理學系/碩士(2006年)

摘要

台灣半導體代工產業的發達，從前段的晶圓代工到後段的測試封裝，全球市場佔有率超過了50%，客戶群來自世界各地，理應享有較一般產業為高的利潤，但事實卻非如此。尤其是本文中所要探討的封裝測試產業，在2000年的產能過度擴充後，好不容易經過五年的產能消化，終於在2005下半年恢復了原該享有的利潤。但在2006年上半年度又開始大幅擴充產能，可以預見產業內的企業在2007年又將面對因產能過剩的嚴重價格競爭。
半導體封裝技術在近年來突飛猛進，高階產品進入覆晶式封裝，而低階產品也進入晶圓級封裝的領域。因傳統導線架封裝所使用的純金線價格飛漲，導致封裝成本上升，加上手機及相關無線通訊的產品，對提升訊息傳遞速度之要求，於是吸引了許多新產品採取此晶圓封裝方式。但是晶圓級封裝廠的投資金額龐大，企業的決策者在面對此重大產能擴充決策時，無不小心謹慎，然而缺乏一個有系統又簡單好用的決策分析方法。
為避免企業的決策者在面對產能擴充的決策時，掉入以直覺或是經驗為主的決策陷阱，本研究目的係建構晶圓級封裝產能擴充評估模式，協助企業的決策者做一理性且適當的決策。評估模式中將對問題定義、目標架構、衡量指標、評估屬性、方案產生與選擇等，一一地加以探討，並以產業實際案例為實證以檢驗本研究之效度。

關鍵字

晶圓級封裝 ； 製造策略 ； 決策分析 ； 五力分析 ； SWOT ； 產業生命週期模式 ； 紫式多屬性決策分析架構 ； 簡易多屬性評等技術

並列摘要

In semiconductor industry, IC assembly technologies have been significantly improved in the recent years. A lot of high-end devices convert to Flip Chip Packaging and low-end devices to Wafer Level Packaging (WLP). There are two major reasons for this kind of conversion. The first one is Au price raising issue that has seriously impacted the cost of the wire bond package. The other one is the demanding of high-speed transmission for handsets and wireless communication devices.
To expand the WLP capacity is a very difficult decision, because the capital expenditure is much higher than traditional package. Furthermore, WLP capacity is unique and cannot share with traditional package. However, there is a need for an effective and easy-to-use decision analysis methodology for help top managers in high-tech industries to make such critical decisions. Therefore, this thesis aims to fill the gap by developing a Capacity Expansion Decision Analysis Model to assist top managers in making the right decisions for WLP capacity expansion. An empirical study was conducted and the results showed the practical viability of this approach.

並列關鍵字

Wafer Level Packaging (WLP) ； Manufacturing Strategy ； Decision Analysis ； Five Force Model ； SWOT ； Industry Life Cycle Model ； UNISON Framework for Decision Analysis ； Simple Multi-Attribute Ranking Technique (SMART)

參考文獻

1.伍學經、言斯華 合譯， Charles H. K. and Benjamin B. T. (1965) ，問題分析與決策，中國生產力中心，台北市。

12.Anderson, C. R. and C. P. Zeithaml (1984), “Stage of the Product Life Cycle, Business Strategy, and Business Performance,” Academy of Management Journal, 27(1), 5-24.

13.Andrews, K. R. (1971), The Concept of Corporate Strategy, Irwin, Homewood, IL.

16.Charles, W. Hofer (1975), “Towards a Contingency Theory of Business Strategy,” Academy of Management Journal, 18(4), 784-810.

17.Chien, C. F. and J. Wu (2003), “Analyzing Repair Decisions in the Site Imbalance Problem of Semiconductor Test Machines,” IEEE Transactions on Semiconductor Manufacturing, 16(4), 704-711.