台灣本質工業營運變遷之研究

Study on the Business Operating Status of Wood Products Industry in Taiwan

鐘達雄(Darryl-Hsiung Chung) ； 陳世國(Shyh-Gwo Chen)

《林產工業》 16卷4期 (1997/12) Pp. 795-811

摘要

本研究將歷年之營運資料分別運用時間數列分析方法，探討其營運變遷之趨勢，並利用逐步迴歸方法分析影響木質工業營運之各項變數，以獲致逐步複迴歸式，俾供木質工業營運變遷分析之參考；其逐步複迴歸式如下：Y = 966.94 + 0.0097X_2 + 0.546X_3 - 1.286X_7+ 0.483X_(10)式中Y為木竹及家具業營業收入（億元）（基期民國69年起），X_2為員工人數（人），X_3為營業支出（億元），X_7為廠地面積（公頃），X_(10)為電熱容積（千瓦）。研究結果顯示，木竹及家具業在工廠家數、營業收入、營業支出、固定資產與存貨存料皆呈成長趨勢；而員工人數、廠地面積、樓地板面積與電熱容積則逐年下降；其工廠家數與營運收入之成長來自家其及裝設品業之貢獻。木竹製品業在製造業中所佔比率呈下降趨勢，主要原因係產業的大量外移及萎縮，表示其產業面臨營運轉型之衝擊。整體而言，木質工業之發展趨勢與總體製造業之發展趨勢類似，唯獨木竹製品業之員工人數與廠地面積呈下降趨勢，顯現其出現營運結構改變之情形，需加速調整產業之經營能力，使獲利在合理範圍：並加速轉型，以適應經營環境之快速變遷。

關鍵字

木質工業 ； 時間數列 ； 營運變遷

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to analyze the business operation data by time series analysis method in order to explore the trend of the changes of the wood products industry in Taiwan. In this study the stepwise liner regression method is used to analyze the variables influencing of the wood products industry. The result of this study could be applied to the analysis approach of wood products industry business operation status. According the this study,the suitable equation is as follows: Y = 966.94 + 0.0097X_2 + 0.546X_3 - 1.286X_7+0.483X_(10) Where Y is the business operating income(hundred million NT dollars, begins from 1980);X_2 is the numbers of employee(person);X_3 is the operation cost;X_7 is the land area of factory(hectare);and X_(10) is the electric heat capacity(KW). The result of this study shows that running business factors of wood, bamboo and furniture industry, such as the number of factories, the business operating income, the business operating payment, the fixed assets and the inventory etc. are in the increasing trend; on the other hand, the running business factors of the number of employee, the land area of factory, the flooring area of building and electric heat capacity are declining year by year. The growth of the number of factory and business operating revenues in this sector was attributed by the furniture and decoration industry. The share of wood, bamboo, and furniture industry in the whole manufacturing industry is declining gradually, this is mainly due to the moving out & decline of the abovementioned industry. And the industry is facing the change of business operating style. To sum up, the prosperity of wood products industry is the same as the manufacturing industry. But as a whole the number of employee and land areas of factory are declining. It shows that the industry structure changes gradually. It is needed to quickly adjust the operating capacity to gain reasonable profit and to accelerate transforming to adapt to the rapidly chahging operating environment.

並列關鍵字

Wood products industry ； Time series ； Business operating status