美國因應中國崛起與對台灣的啟示：正和零和的評估與因應

America Deal with China Rise and Taiwanese Enlightening: The Estimating Perspective of Positive Sum and Zero Sum

初國華(Gwo-Hwa Chu)

《復興崗學報》 93期 (2009/03) Pp. 221-240

https://doi.org/10.29857/FHKAJ.200903.0011

摘要

1978年後，中共改革開放的高速經濟成長漸崛起為區域強權，這反映在國際社會則激起中國威脅論卻也伴隨中國崛起的氛圍。中國週邊或亞太國家如美國，其內部會如何評估與因應潛在的競爭者或強權中國以維持美國的亞太霸權與利益，而東亞相關國家也同樣會感受崛起中國帶來的影響與因應困境，為因應上述政策困境，美國逐漸發展出政策不連續的二元因應策略來面對崛起中國的敵友兩難困境。基於國際政治社會化的政策學習，在以美國為主導的政略啟示下，台灣面對中國崛起的敵友困境或抉擇難題，其應然走向的選項為何？這是本文之研究目的與動機。本文從Thomas Christensen的正和與零和概念來探討美國或台灣的二元性因應評估與策略。基於政策模仿與學習，則美國的策略靈活性與政策不連續的彈性應對，應對台灣的立場與觀點有所啟發與導引。

關鍵字

台海戰爭論 ； 正和觀點 ； 零和觀點 ； 兩岸關係 ； 政策學習

並列摘要

After 1978, Chinese reforms and openness resulted in fast speed growing of economy and rising a regional power. This reflect companying as the mood of ”China threat” and ”China rising” in international community. The Chinese neighbors and Asian-Pacific state as America, how to estimate and deal with the potential power the China as to sustain state's interest is a great issue. Otherwise, the relative countries of the neighbors will be impacted the China rising as well. Whether China threat or China rising should shape a dilemma of policy for the relative governments. Thus, the U.S. has developed a dual strategy gradually to address the dilemma of a friend or a enemy. Based on the policy-learning of socialization of international community, and to view the American dual policy as the benchmark, then how is the normative options for Taiwan confronting the China rising. This article adopts the concepts of Thomas Christensen about the perspective of Positive Sum and perspective of Zero Sum to study the dual strategy of U.S. and Taiwan. Based on imitation and learning of policy, the American policy elasticity shall enlighten Taiwanese position and options.

並列關鍵字

Taiwan-Strait-War-thesis ； Perspective of Positive Sum ； Perspective of Zero Sum ； Both-sides relationship ； Policy-learning