中國威脅？經濟互賴與中國大陸的武力使用

中國大陸改革開放後經濟迅速成長，成為一個崛起中的新興強權，國際問因而有所謂「中國威脅論」的出現。目前中國大陸的經濟成長有賴於與國際市場的緊密連結，這種經濟上的聯繫，也就是國際關係學界所稱的「經濟互賴」，能否對中國大陸武力的使用產生限制？這個議題引起了「現實主義」與「自由主義」兩大學派的熱烈討論。關於經濟互賴與中國大陸的武力使用，本文嘗試分別進行量化與質化研究，以檢驗互賴限制武力使用的推論。在量化研究中，本文以中國大陸的外貿與外資作為經濟互賴程度的指標，另以密西根大學戰爭相關研究小組的「國際軍事爭端」資料作為中國大陸使用武力傾向的指標。而在質化研究中，本文則以兩岸關係為案例進行分析。綜合而言，本文大致上獲得了溫和的正面證據，支持互二賴限制中國大陸使用武力的推論。

關鍵字

中國威脅論；自由主義；經濟互賴；武力使用

並列摘要

Rapid economic growth in recent Mainland China has made it a raising great power in the Asian-pacific region and even in the global term. As a result, the so-called “China threat” is emerging. The current rapid economic growth in Mainland China depends on its close linkage with the world market, but can this linkage, known as “economic interdependence” , constrain China’s use of force? This issue has gathered intensive debates between Realists and Liberalists. This article intends to conduct both quantitative and qualitative analysis to test the causal logic of the proposition of economic interdependence. In quantitative studies, this article utilizes the “militarized interstate dispute” data set as the indicator of the tendency of Mainland China’s use of force, and takes Mainland China’s foreign trade and investment as indicators to measure the degree of economic interdependence. In qualitative analysis, this article presents a case study of Cross-Strait relations. In general, this article finds moderate evidence that support the proposition of economic interdependence.