重大飛航事故之飛安體系風險管理分析

Analysis of Aviation Occurrence Using Aviation Safety Community Risk Management Model Approach

盧衍良(Alex Y. L Lu) ； 楊政樺(C. H. Yang) ； 戎凱(K. Yong) ； 賴維祥(W. H. Lai)

《中國航空太空學會學刊》 36卷4期 (2004/12) Pp. 375-381

https://doi.org/10.6124/TAASRC.200412_36(4).07

摘要

本研究藉由回授控制迴路之轉移函數特性，結合航空安全與風險管理之相關研究，逕自發展出一套飛安體系風險管理理論模型。該理論係經由一連串的邏輯觀念推演所推導而成，藉此理論，本研究發展出若干組織安全管理之概念，諸如風險管理效能、組織安全潛能、組織經驗潛能與不確定性指標等，藉由數學模式的呈現，本研究針對實際失事事件作分析，亦獲致初步合理之解釋。

關鍵字

風險管理效能 ； 安全潛能 ； 經驗潛能 ； 不確定性指標

並列摘要

An innovative Aviation Safety Community Risk Management (ASCRM) Model based on the feedback control concept is presented in this paper. The relevant elements and their correlated sequence in this model are addressed. A definition of Risk Management Performance (RMP) is defined to state the degree of corporation’s risk control. The preliminary result shows that the nature of RMP output is mapping to the states of Safety Potential implying that the degree of hazards can be eliminated with defense systems, Experience Potential implies that the degree of hazards can be prevented with experience feedback, and the Indication of Uncertainty which represents the risk unpredictability is the dominant part to represent the risk control level of a developed corporation.

並列關鍵字

Risk management performance ； Safety potential ； Experience potential ； Uncertainty indicator