台灣石油產業面臨之挑戰與因應

The Challenges and its Response of Taiwan's Petroleum Industry

辛繼勤(Jil-Chyn Shin) ； 蔡長成(Chang-Cheng Tsai) ； 李劍英(Chien-Ying Lee)

《石油季刊》 54卷4期 (2018/12) Pp. 39-50

摘要

台灣石化產業面對環評及空污法規範衝擊，2017年台塑集團擴建案與台灣中油公司高值化投資案因此受阻，空污法對排放總量的管制與削減，也讓國內產能擴充不易；台灣石化業外銷以中國為主，但中國正積極發展石化產業，對台灣形成進口替代威脅。此外，各國政府將於2040年停產汽、柴油車政策，電動車將進入快速成長期，對石油市場帶來新的變數。國際海事組織（International Maritime Organization,IMO）為大幅抑制全球船舶產生的污染，自2020年1月1日起實施新排放標準，將船舶燃油的硫含量從目前3.5％調降至0.5％，此新規定是能源與航運市場有史以來最大改變。過去十年來，隨著頁岩油開採技術不斷進化，美國石油產出翻了兩倍有餘，依據EIA數據顯示，美國2018年6至8月石油產能持續攀升，每日原油產出逼近1,100萬桶，已經超越俄羅斯，對油品市場影響甚大。油品市場結構會因電動車興起、頁岩油氣的增產及IMO 2020船舶燃油硫含量降低等因素而調整，煉廠需因應市場變化進行轉型。

關鍵字

電動車 ； 頁岩油 ； IMO 2020 ； 船舶燃油 ； 煉製結構改善

並列摘要

Taiwan petrochemical Industry facing the impact of EIA and air pollution law, the expansion of Formosa Petrochemical Corporation in 2017 and the high-value investment project of CPC were restricted and limited. The constraint and reduction of total emissions by air pollution law also made it more difficult to expand domestic production capacity. The product from Taiwan petrochemical industry is mainly exported to China, but China is actively developing petrochemical industry to meet its domestic requirement instead of being imported from Taiwan and also threaten Taiwan petrochemical Industry. In addition, many countries announce their policy to shut down the factories to produce the gasoline and diesel vehicles in 2040, and electric vehicles will be developing rapidly and bringing a profound impact on the oil market. The International Maritime Organization (Maritime Organization, IMO) has been implementing new emission standards since January 1, 2020 to significantly curb pollution from ships worldwide, reducing the sulfur content of ship fuel from its current 3.5% to 0.5%. The new rule is the biggest change in the energy and shipping markets ever. Over the past decade, as shale oil mining technology has evolved, U.S. oil output has doubled by more than twice times. According to EIA data, U.S. oil production capacity continued to climb up from June to August in 2018, and daily crude oil output approached 11 million barrels surpassing Russia to impact greatly on the oil market. To face the oil market structure adjusted by the rise of electric vehicles, the significant production increase in shale oil and gas and the sharp reduction of sulfur content of bunker by IMO 2020, the refinery production configuration needs to be upgraded and transformed to meet the tremendous changes for the future market.

並列關鍵字

Electric vehicles ； Shale oil ； IMO 2020 ； Bunker ； Refinery Configuration Improvement