建構系統性潛艇選擇評估模式之研究—整合模糊系統與層級分析程序法決策模式

Evaluating Submarine Selection Using Systematic Decision Model-Integrated Fuzzy System and Decision Model

管孟忠(M. J. Goan) ； 賀增原(T. Y. Heh) ； 劉思遠(S. Y. Liou)

《中國造船暨輪機工程學刊》 21卷3期 (2002/08) Pp. 197-207

https://doi.org/10.29982/JTSNAME.200208.0006

摘要

藉由模糊系統及層級分析程序法以建立一套選擇潛艇之系統性的評估模式。本研究使用的數據及其演算的方法皆是模擬之範例，主要的重點在於建立決策模式。首先搜集客觀的數據、詳細的資料，經過模糊化處理，將我國戰略的構想，配合品質機能展開表，與專家學者的經驗，找出適合我國潛艇所需的品質因素，作為邏輯分析的法則，最後由解模糊化的步驟，找出性能最好之潛艇；接著考量參考售價、後勤維修與船廠技術能量等因素，利用層級分析程序法進行實證性研究，找出一艘性能強、價格低、易維修與設計佳能符合我國情勢之潛艇。

關鍵字

模糊系統 ； 專家經驗 ； 層級分析程序法

並列摘要

This study provided a systematic methodology for submarines selection by using the fuzzy system and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results of this study not only provide the capability to establish the decision-making model for selecting a submarine suitable to our country but also provide the headquarter of MND the overall thinking framework in strategic planning for acquisition policy for a submarine. First of all, we collect detail numerical data from four alternative submarines. By using the quality functional deployment method, we find out the quality factors that fit our submarine's needs. Using the fuzzy logic rules based on our country's strategy and expert linguistic rules, we search for the best performance of one submarine. Consequently, AHP decision model is used to compare the submarine's performance with other quality factors such as price, logistics, and shipyard technology capacity. By this systematic selection methodology, we can get a submarine which is of the best performance, the lowest price, the easist maintenance and the best design.

並列關鍵字

Fuzzy System ； Expert Linguistic Rules ； Analytical Hierarchy Process