應用時空間分析探討花蓮縣巴拉旦部落趨避行為模式

時間地理學在人文地理中，廣泛的應用在量化人類活動的行為模式。人類活動被視為主觀性的移動行為。本研究透過時間和空間二個維度的訊息，試圖了解災害期間人類風險認知與趨避決策；並藉由時間地理學的人類活動路徑之研究，作為個體趨避行為的分析探討；同時結合GIS空間分析及網格分析功能，動態的探討人類在災害期間的避難行為模式。本研究以花蓮縣巴拉旦部落為研究樣區，並於2013年9月20日天兔颱風期間，記錄居民時空路徑。利用迴歸統計分析、地理空間分析、時間地理學等概念，以空間統計的方法，尋找風險認知與趨避行為的關聯性。研究發現風險認知越高的居民，其趨避行為的意願越低；空間自相關呈隨機分布；趨避行為的時空間路徑，受居民絕對自我的主觀意識影響。然而，趨避行為與防災準備、社區互動呈正相關，可利用部落樣本點的聚集分布，設置關鍵人物，增進社區的風險溝通，以提高居民避災的意願。

關鍵字

時間地理學；疏散避難；個體行為模式

並列摘要

Time geography has been applied widely in the discipline of human geography to quantify behavior patterns of human activity. This study attempted to understand risk perception and evacuation decision-making through the two dimensions of time and space. The Paratan Tribe in Hualien County was used as a sample in the study, which recorded the residents' temporal and spatial paths on September 20, 2013, during the typhoon Usagi. Individual evacuation behavior was analyzed and explored by studying the time geography of this human activity. GIS spatial analysis was also used to reveal patterns of human behavior during the disaster. The concepts of regression analysis, geospatial analysis, and time geography were used to develop spatial statistics. This study attempted to identify the correlation between perception and evacuation behavior. The study found that residents with higher risk perception would have lower evacuation willingness. Spatial autocorrelation was randomly distributed. The time-space paths of the evacuation behavior were affected by the self-perceptions of residents. However, because evacuation is positively correlated with disaster preparedness and community interaction, the aggregated distribution of sample points of the Paratan Tribe could be used to establish key persons. This will enhance risk communication within the community and improve the evacuation willingness of residents.