為何民進黨政府的廢核政策失敗？社會動員、改革機會與政治策略的分析

Why did the DPP's Government's Anti-Nuclear Policy Fail? An Analysis of Social Mobilization, Reform Opportunity and Political Strategy

何明修(Ming-sho Ho)

《台灣政治學刊》 6期 (2002/12) Pp. 86-137

https://doi.org/10.6683/TPSR.200212.6.86-137

摘要

本研究試圖回答，為何民進黨政府的廢核政策以失敗收場。在一開始，我們先從社會運動的文獻整理中，來討論何種因素影響了運動訴求的後果。我們發現，社會動員、改革機會、政治策略這三者是具有關鍵性的作用。簡單地說，在持續的社會動員之下，改革者精準地掌握重要的機會，採取適當的政治策略，才能達成改革的目標。透過這個觀點，本文將要重建民進黨政府推動廢核政策的歷史脈絡，著重討論改革者當時所面臨的情境。我們認為（1）反核團體的持續動員，是有助於形成改革的壓力與正當性；（2）國民黨下台後所帶來的政黨重組、政治不確性、反核者掌握重要政府位置等現象，是一個難能可貴的改革機會；（3）民進黨政府所採用的冒進策略，在激起舊有既得利益的反撲之餘，卻沒有辦法使得新政策受益者的支持，其結果則是導致了廢核政策的失敗。在最後，我們將進一步討論，新政府廢核失敗對於未來反核運動，或說其他進步政治的影響。

關鍵字

反核運動；社會動員；改革機會；政治機會；政治策略

並列摘要

This article aims to explain the failure of the DPP government's anti-nuclear policy. We begin with an overview of the literature on social movements in order to locate the key factors affecting the outcome of collective action. Social mobilization, reform opportunity and political strategy turn out to be significant in this regard. In sum, the success of movement consists in a delicately combined circumstance. Sustained social mobilization is necessary, but not sufficient. The capacity of reformer to grasp the opportunity and adopt a viable strategy to orchestrate a reform coalition, to engineer the urgency for reform, and to take political initiative could not be overlooked. The latter part of this article reconstructs the evolution of the anti-nuclear reform after March 2000. We find (1) the resuscitated popular mobilization in the year 2000 contributes to the pressure for reform; (2) the downfall of the KMT and formation of a reform-oriented government bright forward a valuable reform opportunity; (3) the DPP's adventurist strategy fails to organize the pro-reform camp while arousing the dogged resistance of the privileged and its enemy. We conclude by rethinking the future agenda of progressive politics and reforms in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Anti-nuclear movement ； social mobilization ； reform opportunity ； political opportunity ； political strategy

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