大專籃球勝負因素解析－以104學年度UBA公開男一級冠軍賽為例

因應國際籃總2014年新規則二次進攻14秒的修訂，本研究之目的在於探討104學年度大專公開組男子一級籃球聯賽冠軍賽中，攻守紀錄暨二次進攻攻守數據與球賽勝負因素之關係。資料蒐集採用大專籃球聯賽官方網站所提供之冠軍賽攻守紀錄資料，並透過觀看球賽影片收集兩隊二次進攻之17項攻守紀錄資料，以皮爾森相關進行分析。結果顯示：（一）進攻籃板和兩分出手呈現很顯著正相關（r=.863, p＜.01）；（二）進攻籃板和罰球出手呈現顯著正相關(r=.708, p＜.05）；（三）進攻籃板和對手犯規呈很顯著正相關（r=.849, p＜.01）；（四）助攻和三分命中呈現很顯著正相關（r=1, p＜.01）；（五）防守籃板和阻攻呈顯著正相關（r=.788, p＜.05）；（六）失誤和兩分出手呈現顯著負相關（r=-.731, p＜.05）。結論：投籃和罰球命中率是勝負因素關鍵，當投籃命中率不佳時，二次進攻將成為勝負因素關鍵；球員犯規和上場時間也是影響因素之一，減少犯規增加上場時間才有機會掌握優勢赢得比賽勝利。

關鍵字

攻守紀錄；二次進攻

並列摘要

With respect to the amendment of the new FIBA rules in 2014 about the14 seconds second chance, the purpose of this study is to investigate the offensive and defensive record in the finals of year 104 college open group of men basketball and the related factors between the second chance and the outcome of the basketball match. The information is provided by official site of UBA and via reviewing the videos of the game to collect both team's 17 offensive and defensive log data about their second chance, which then being analyzed by the Pearson correlation. Result: (i) Offensive rebounds and two points attempts are positively(r=.863, p＜.01); (ii) Offensive rebounds and free throw attempts are positively(r=.708, p＜.05); (iii) Offensive rebounds and opponent fouls are positively(r=.849, p＜.01); (iv) Assists and three points made are positively correlated(r=1, p＜.01); (v) Defensive rebounds and block shots are positively correlated(r=.788, p＜.05); (vi) Turnovers and two points shots are negatively correlated(r=-.731, p＜.05). Conclusion: Field goal and free throw percentage are the key factors to the outcome, when the field goal percentage is low, second chance will become the key factor to the outcome; players' fouls and minutes on court are factors also, reducing the number of fouls and increasing the minutes on court grasp the advantage of victory.