台灣經濟政策的效果分析：產業關聯模型之應用

最近一連串的金融海嘯(Financial Tsunami)，不僅是美國受到創傷，連遠離金融震央的歐洲以及東亞各國經濟上都明顯地產生變化。全球化下的台灣自然無法規避，2008年第4季經濟負成長8.36%，12月商品出口較前年同期減少41.9%，行政院主計處更將2009年的經濟成長率下修到負2.97%。本文分析金融危機對台灣產業的衝擊，同時估算政府因應政策帶來的經濟效果，並以「產業關聯經濟波及模型」推算162產業部門在這次金融危機的衝擊與經濟政策效果，本研究所獲致的實證結果如下：(1)本研究推算出此次金融危機對台灣經濟影響，當經濟成長率下降爲2.97%，6%，8.5%時，分別減少2,891億，5,842億，8,276億的經濟規模，引發的失業人數分別約爲12.3萬人，25萬9,497人，35.3萬人，而其中以對服務相關產業的影響最大。以世界景氣的連動係數角度來看，顯示由於台灣爲一個以出口爲導向的國家，較易受世界景氣好壞的影響。(2)消費券政策的總經濟效果爲827億元，乘數效果約爲0.97，而其經濟成長率將推升0.64%。創造3萬5千人的就業機會，其中服務相關產業增加的就業量約占總增加就業量的75%以上，以基礎建設產業爲最少。(3)對於「振興經濟擴大公共建設投資計畫」的經濟總效果爲9,715億，直接就業效果就有15萬人。第一階段就業創造以服務相關產業增加最多。而第二次間接效果的就業創造，服務關聯產業依然創造了4萬8千人。

關鍵字

金融危機；產業關聯經濟波及模型；經濟政策

並列摘要

Recently, due to a succession of financial tsunami (Financial T'Zunami), the economy is on the downside all over the world. Under the globalization, Taiwan fails to avoid the economic shock. In the 4(superscript th) quarter 2008 the economic growth rate -8.36%. This present study investigates the impact of the financial crisis on the Taiwan industry. We, moreover, evaluate the effect of governmental policy by employing the input-output analysis. The empirical findings are as follows: (1) We find the GDP would go down by 289.1 billion, 584.2 billion and 827.6 billion respectively as the economic growth rate drops by 2.97%, 6%, and 8.5%, respectively. In terms of the employment, the service industry would be hit most seriously. (2) As to the issues of the consumer vouchers, the GDP will increase NT$ 82.7 billion and the multiplier is approximately 0.97. The economic growth rate has a 0.64% increase. It would create 3.5 thousand jobs which is approximately 75% out of increase in total employment for the service industry. (3) As to ”the rare or endangered species expand the public works capital spending plan”, the economic total effect is NT$971.5 billion. The direct effect will reach a 150 thousand people hired. The first stage employment creation serves the correlation industry to increase many.