台灣水產製品產值之循環趨勢特徵分析

Analysis for the Cycle and Trend of Processed Fishery Products Value in Taiwan

蔡美玲(Mei-Ling Tsai) ； 王志敏(Chih-Min Wang)

《高雄海洋科大學報》 23期 (2008/12) Pp. 1-18

https://doi.org/10.6983/KHHYKTHP.200812.0001

摘要

本文以台灣水產製品之產值之時間序列爲研究變數（包括：罐頭類各類製品、冷凍冷藏類、乾製與鹽製品、其他水產製品）爲主，運用季節分析與HP(Hodrick-Prescott)濾波法，將時間序列分解，估算水產製品季節性變動、循環周期與長期趨勢，並依據分析結果，對水產製品之循環特性進行比較分析。研究結果發現水產市場產值存在明顯之季節效應，除了罐頭類之外，在一年中之高檔期出現在每年之1月；低檔出現在每年之7-8月；而在濾波分析水產市場產值的趨勢呈現向下並且無長期景氣循現象，只存在短期循環波動。最後研究發現，冷凍冷藏類與乾製與鹽製品，無論季節變動或趨勢循環都呈現相同的變動，兩者間存在密切的關連性。

關鍵字

水產製品 ； 週期 ； 趨勢 ； HP濾波法

並列摘要

This paper applies the decomposition theory to examine the seasonal fluctuation, cycle and trend on processed fishery products (canned products, frozen and cold storage products, dried-salted products, others products) value for Taiwan during 1995-2005. Our estimation results that that processed fishery products time-series fluctuation was a significantly seasonal affect apparently that the higher level at January. Except the canned products, the lower levels at July to August. Then Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter is applied to decompose the trend and cycle component of the processed fishery products series. The estimation results indicate that have random fluctuations and indistinguishable of period cycles At least, we found the similarity fluctuations between cold storage products and dried-salted products time-series... The estimation results are of policy implication to the development of processed fishery products market in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Processed Fishery Products ； Cycle ； Trend ； Hedrick-Prescott Filter