低成本航空對傳統航空載客率影響之研究－以日本線為例

台灣自1987年開放天空政策以來，各大小航空公司紛紛成立。低成本航空(LCC)也開始積極進入台灣市場。台灣與日本於2011年11月10簽屬日航空協定，此後，捷星(Jetstar)、樂桃(Peach)等低成本航空如雨後春筍般進入台灣，進而激起了許多低成本航空對於傳統航空(FSC)衝擊之討論。然而，低成本航在日本航載客率上是否真的對傳統航空造成影響？具體影響的程度為何？鮮有文獻深入探討。本文針對大阪、成田、名古屋、琉球四條航線，透過敘述性統計、相關分析、多元迴歸分析之方法，將產業變數之、總體環境變數分別對華航、長榮載客率2011年至2016年之月資料進行分析。並進一步透過BCG矩陣歸納出兩家航空公司四條航線的成長率與市占率分布情形。研究結果顯示，在日本四條航線上，低成本航空皆沒有與傳統航空載客率造成負向影響，反觀整體旅日市場上升，兩者市場區隔，形成二種經營型態共榮共存的局面。攸關日本線最顯著之變數為淡旺季、次者為消費者信心指數。在BCG矩陣研究結果顯示，中華航空四條航線市場占有率高、成長率低的情形；長榮航空相對市場佔有率低於中華航空，但是大阪線與琉球線的成長率卻高。根據研究結果，分別對中華航空、長榮航空四條航線上提出各項建議，供航空業者、相關研究人員未來研究之參考。

關鍵字

低成本航空；迴歸分析； BCG矩陣；載客率

並列摘要

Since Taiwan agreed to initiate its Open-skies Policy in 1987, various airline companies began to form, including low-cost carriers (LCC) which eagerly entered Taiwanese markets. Taiwan and Japan reached aviation agreements on November 10, 2011; many LCCs such as Jetstar and Peach emerged as rising competitors in Taiwan, sparking a discussion about their impact on other full-service carriers (FSC). Do LCCs really pose a threat to FSCs in air travel between the two countries? To what extent do they affect those companies? Few sources have explored in detail. This research focuses on four destinations - Osaka, Tokyo Narita, Nagoya and Okinawa - based on descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis (MRA), while taking a close look at marketing and overall environmental factors in travel data between China Airlines and EVA Air (2011-2016, monthly). The growth and market share distributions of these four routes, operated by both companies, can be furthermore described using BCG matrices. The research concludes that, with respect to these four Japanese travel routes, LCCs did not create a negative impact on FSCs. Increasing traffic between Taiwan and Japan, in fact, facilitated prosper coexistence between the two types of carriers. Among the most significant factors are peak and low seasons, in addition to consumer confidence. BCG matrix analyses indicate that China Airlines had greater market shares and smaller growth rates; although EVA Air possessed fewer market shares than China Airlines, their Osaka and Okinawa routes grew at a rapid rate. The results of these observations may serve as suggestions to China Airlines and EVA Air, as well as references for aviation professionals and future researchers.