運用「修正式德菲法」探討國軍協助災害防救制度

我國地處災害頻仍地區，政府為了有效因應災害，策訂相關法令，建立整體災害防救機制，國軍亦屬其中之一部，主動協助各類災害救援，然因諸多因素造成救援過程之缺失，本文欲藉危機管理理論、前人研究成果與修正式德菲法（Modified Delphi Method, MDM）之結合，尋求國軍整體災害防救機制之不足與精進方向。「修正式德菲法」廣泛使用於政策研究領域，以專家知識為基礎，就某項議題充分表達其意見，歷經反覆的問卷回饋之後，凝聚專家共識，提出適切之政策建議。本研究經由二回合問卷往返，在法令與預算、減災與整備及應變與復原等策略方向，共提出33項之評估因素，可供國軍未來精進災害防救制度之參酌。

關鍵字

災害防救；國軍救災；修正式德菲法

並列摘要

Taiwan is located in the area where disasters happen frequently. In order to effectively respond to disasters, the government enacted relevant laws and regulations and developed a comprehensive disaster prevention and relief mechanism. The Armed Forces, a part of mechanism, actively assisted various types of disaster relief. However, the rescue process was not perfect due to many factors. These study intents to find out the deficiencies in the overall military disaster prevention and relief mechanism and figure out the directions of improving them by adopting the theory of crisis management, the modified Delphi Method (MDM) and previous research results. The MDM is widely used in the field of policy research. Based on expert knowledge, it fully expresses its opinions on a specific topic. After getting back-and-forth feedback from questionnaires, it converges expert consensus and proposes appropriate policy recommendations. The study provides 33 evaluation factors regarding law and budget, disaster reduction and preparation, response and recovery after undergoing two rounds of questionnaires. The results of this study can be used to advance military disaster prevention and relief system in the future.