俄烏戰爭對當代軍事行動之啟示並兼論對臺海防衛作戰的可能影響

The Lesson Learned from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine War to the Contemporary Military Operations and its Implications on a Future Taiwan Strait Conflict

姚宏旻(Hon-Min Yau)

《俄烏戰爭專題論文集》 2022 (2022/11) Pp. 1-28

摘要

2022年2月24日，俄羅斯普丁總統以「人道救援」為名，發動所謂「特殊作戰行動」（Special Military Operation）入侵烏克蘭，以支援烏克蘭東部頓巴斯（Donbas）地區頓內茨克（Donetsk）與盧甘斯克（Luhansk）兩個地區部分親俄勢力。然於2022年3月期間俄羅斯就烏克蘭北部、東部與南部的多方大規模進攻卻發生許多軍事誤失，並遭遇高於預期的烏克蘭軍事抵抗；其後逐漸集結轉戰烏東，並試圖修正過去部隊作戰缺失，及至2022年6月底時，俄軍已能完全掌控烏東城市北頓內茨克（Sievierodonetsk）並幾乎將影響力擴展到頓巴斯地區全境。本文試圖探討俄羅斯的軍事行動策略為何未能在初期達成所望的閃電戰效果？而烏克蘭又如何能在軍事質量皆無優勢下延長戰事至今？是故本文主要透過公開情報分析方法，藉由回顧2022年6月前俄烏戰爭之背景及進程，並透過瞭解交戰雙方如何運用法律、輿論、經濟與軍事等作戰手段分析，歸納對未來臺海防衛作戰之啟示與影響。

關鍵字

俄烏戰爭 ； 閃電戰 ； 武裝衝突 ； 認知作戰 ； 不對稱作戰

並列摘要

On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a so-called "Special Military Operation" against Ukraine in the name of "humanitarian aid" to support the pro-Russian separatists' movement in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, in particular, in the area of the so-called the Republic of Donetsk and the Republic of Luhansk. However, Russia's multiple front offensive operations on northern, eastern, and southern Ukraine made numerous surprising military mistakes and also encountered a higher-than-expected level of Ukrainian military resistance. By the end of March, Russia regrouped and moved its troops to eastern Ukraine and attempted to correct the failures learned from the combat experience in the first phase. By the end of June 2022, the Russian army had successfully controlled the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk and extended its influence to almost the entire area of the Donbas region. The puzzle presented in this research is why Russia's strategy of military operations failed to achieve the desired blitzkrieg effect in the first stage of actions and how Ukraine has prolonged the war so far, even without possessing a near-peer military capability. Therefore, the primary purpose of this article is to review the historical background and progress of the Russia-Ukraine war before June 2022 via the approach of Open-Source Intelligence Analysis. The study analyzed how the waning parties use legal, public opinion, economic, and military means of warfare and summarized the possible implications and impacts on the future defense of the Taiwan Strait security.

並列關鍵字

Russia-Ukraine War ； Blitzkrieg ； Armed Conflict ； Cognitive Warfare ； Asymmetric Warfare