影響臺灣眼鏡零售店家數之經濟分析

素有近視王國之稱的臺灣，近年來人口雖然成長趨緩，近視或有眼鏡需求的人口卻不斷增加，回顧過去二十年間（1999~2018），眼鏡零售店家並非不斷增多，臺灣眼鏡市場受到PEST四種企業環境因素所影響：政治（Political）、經濟（Economic）、社會（Social）與科技（Technological）。本研究採用解釋變數如下：景氣指標分數、租金指數、消費者物價指數、經濟成長率、驗光人員考試合格人數和日系品牌快時尚品牌引進臺灣前後，其中前四項歸類為經濟與技術類因素，第五項為政治類因素，第六項為社會類因素。藉由上述六個解釋變數之組合，經複（多元）迴歸模型的經濟分析技巧作實證，來探討臺灣眼鏡零售店家數變化的主因，每個月取出一組資料作樣本，總計樣本數240組。以複迴歸線性模型解釋1999~2018年間，臺灣眼鏡零售總店家/公司類店家/商業類店家之累計數量的解釋變數皆具有高度解釋力，分析結果顯示驗光人員考試合格人數和日系品牌快時尚新形態店面對眼鏡店家數有相當的影響程度，說明新頒布的驗光法對眼鏡市場有相當的衝擊，以及外來新型態眼鏡店的引進對本土傳統眼鏡市場頗具威脅。二大衝擊都在近五年發生，國內眼鏡業市場掀起一片波瀾，業者必須加速創新和整合，以因應新時代的鉅變。

關鍵字

迴歸分析；複迴歸模型；眼鏡市場；驗光法；快時尚商店

並列摘要

Taiwan is known as the kingdom of myopia. Although the population has slowed down in recent years, the population of myopia or glasses needs has increased. Looking back over the past two decades (1999 ~ 2018), the total number of eyeglasses retail stores are not increasing. The Taiwanese eyewear market is affected by the four environmental factors of business (PEST: Political, Economic, Social and Technological). The explanatory variables used in this study are as follows: prosperity index, rent index, consumer price index, economic growth rate, qualified number of optometry personnel exams, and before and Japanese brand fast fashion brands before and after Taiwan introduction. The first four items are classified into economic/technical factors, the fifth is political factor, and the sixth is social factor. In order to explore the main reasons for the change in the number of eyeglasses retail stores in Taiwan, we use the economic analysis skills of the multiple regression model through the combination of the above six explanatory variables. Each month, a set of data is taken as a sample, and the total number of samples is 240. The multiple regression linear model was used to explain between 1999 and 2018. The explanatory variables of the cumulative number of Taiwanese glasses retail stores/ company stores/ commercial stores are highly explanatory. The results of the analysis showed that the number of qualified optometry personnel and the Japanese brand fast fashion new form store have a considerable degree of influence on the number of optical shops. Explain that the newly issued optometry article has a considerable impact on the glasses market. And the introduction of foreign new-style optical shops is a threat to the local traditional glasses market. The above two major impacts have occurred in the past five years and set off a stormy wave in the eyewear market in Taiwan.